Policy Notes

Coping with crisis: Livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Sudan’s current conflict

Sudan’s conflict, reignited in April 2023, represents not just a military contest between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), but a total systemic collapse that has engulfed governance, infrastructure, markets, and public services. This conflict did not arise in a vacuum. Sudan has long faced structural vulnerabilities including weak institutions, a fragile economy, and climate-related stressors such as erratic rainfall and land degradation. The war, however, accelerated these pre-existing fault lines into a full-blown crisis.

Key urban economies such as Khartoum have been devastated by airstrikes and sieges, while transport corridors and trade routes have been severed. Local governance structures in many regions have been displaced or dissolved, leaving civilians without recourse to basic services or protection. Simultaneously, the banking sector has fractured, disrupting remittances, cash transfers, and supply chains across the country. Insecurity has driven over 12.8 million people from their homes – 8.6 million internally and 3.9 million seeking refuge neighboring countries, as of May 2025 (UNHCR, 2025).

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.

Evaluating hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change uncertainties

Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts.

Supporting Sudan’s entrepreneurs in crisis: Policy insights from micro, small, and medium enterprises

The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s economy and important to the food security of many Sudanese households. All MSMEs, including those in the agrifood sector, have faced severe disruptions due to the instability, rising inflation, and supply chain breakdowns brought on by the conflict. These challenges have destabilized MSMEs, affecting their financial viability, operations, and capacity to support local food security and provide employment. Agrifood MSMEs, in particular, serve as critical intermediaries between large firms and smallholders, supporting local economies and national food systems.2 The conflict has disrupted every aspect of agrifood value chains in Sudan, from input supplies and production to market accessibility. Agrifood entrepreneurs—especially women—have borne some of the heaviest impacts. Female entrepreneurs already face significant gender-based barriers in operating successful businesses, such as more limited access to finance, restrictive social norms, and mobility constraints. In this period of conflict, they now confront even greater
challenges.

Evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the ongoing conflict

Sudan's food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS),1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey,2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey,3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began.

Conflict and food security in Sudan: Policy insights and recommendations

The conflict in Sudan erupted on April 15, 2023. Originating from competition over resources and political power, it emerged as direct warfare between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. It has escalated into a crisis with profound impacts on the nation’s socio-economic fabric. More specifically, the conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, disrupted agrifood systems across the country, restricted economic activity, and curtailed the livelihoods of millions. The conflict continues to impede access to essential services and markets, resulting in significant scarcity of life-saving goods and services. As of March 2024, 14,790 Sudanese have been killed (Figure 1), and 8.4 million have been displaced, of which1.7 million have sought refuge in other countries.

Quarterly bulletin on food price dynamics, inflation, and the food security situation in Sudan: 2021Q1- 2022Q4

-Average international prices of wheat, sorghum, rice, and sugar slightly increased in Q4 of 2022 compared to Q3. Import parity prices decreased during the same period because of the reduction in the freight cost to Port Sudan.
-Annual inflation2 decreased from three-digit inflation (260.6 percent) in 2022Q1 to 92.6 percent in 2022Q4.
-Quarterly changes in the price of non-volatile commodities (core inflation) 3 increased slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2022 due to the increase in the housing rents, education, communication, and processed food prices.
-Retail prices of food commodities were relatively stable during the last two quarters of 2022 com pared to the previous quarters of 2021 and 2022.
-Nominal wholesale prices of grains in Khartoum State increased gradually from 2021Q2 to reach a peak in 2022Q3, before dropping in real and nominal terms in 2022Q4.
-Although the national average of causal labor daily wage was increasing over time nominally (2021Q2–2022Q4), it was decreasing in real terms in 2022Q4.
-Poorer urban and rural households (bottom 40 percent) were more affected by the changes in the prices of food and beverage commodities during 2022Q4 than richer households (top 60 percent).
-Blue Nile, Darfur, and Eastern regions have the highest food insecure population classified in crisis or emergency.

Political constraints and opportunities for agricultural investment in Sudan

This note reviews Sudan’s contemporary political landscape and how it affects the viability of much needed investments central to the country’s agricultural transformation. It specifically focuses on livestock and horticulture value chains in Greater Khartoum and natural resource management in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan States. Successive governments have largely neglected the agriculture sector even though it is the largest employment sector in Sudan and contributes about 56 percent to total exports (CBoS, 2020). Moreover, the sector has a high potential for tackling the twin challenges of food insecurity and improving the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These two are critical priorities given high food price inflation and restricted access to agricultural inputs exacerbated by the Ukraine war. An enabling political and governance environment is essential for adopting and implementing the policies required for agricultural transformation, especially in fragile states like Sudan. This Political Economy Assessment (PEA) exercise has highlighted that the military and paramilitary structures occupy a large market share of the State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), private company partnerships, and land leases to foreign companies in the agriculture sector. Thus, this study forms a basis for deeper PEA and an opportunity for the exploration of the role of intermediaries and the rent seeking activities at the subsequent levels of agricultural value chains, and the extent to which they are linked to both formal and informal economic structures. We have highlighted how smallholder farmers are largely disadvantaged given the current distribution of economic rents.

Bulletin on food price dynamics, inflation, and the food security situation in Sudan: January 2023

International prices of food commodities continued to decrease in January 2023 especially for vegetable oils, sugar, dairy, and meat. Resulting in further sluggish overall price inflation in January 2023 of 83.6 compared to 87.3 percent in December 2022. The national retail prices of food commodities in January 2023 increased slightly compared to December 2022. Fluctuations in the exchange rate were associated with the change in local prices of imported commodities such as wheat and sugar. Food prices in relatively unstable states were higher than the national average. The monthly inflation rate of food and beverages decreased by 0.2 percent in January 2023 compared to December 2022 driven by the declining CPI for the vegetables and fruits.

Bulletin on food price dynamics, inflation and the food security situation in Sudan: November-December 2022

Highlights: • The decline in international prices, especially for food commodities, helped to limit overall price inflation in Sudan in November and December 2022. Consequently, the annual inflation rates in these months were lower than the inflation rate in October 2022. • Local prices of some food commodities noticeably decreased in November 2022 compared to October 2022, especially for cereals (wheat, millet, and sorghum). This decline continued in December 2022. • Local prices of internationally traded food commodities were affected by the fluctuations in the exchange rate during December 2021 to December 2022. • Higher inflation rates are observed in relatively unstable states (in urban and rural areas) compared to the national average. • The monthly inflation rate of food and beverages decreased to 59 percent in November from 70 percent in October 2022 driven by the declining CPI for the bread and cereals group.

2022 annual research and policy conference: Agricultural transformation and food security in Sudan

On Monday, October 10th, 2022, the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) held the inaugural full-day Research and Policy Conference dubbed “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Sudan” at the Corinthia Hotel in Khartoum, Sudan. This event was organized in partnership with local and international organizations working on the Food Security and Agricultural Transformation themes in Sudan. They include the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), Mamoun Behairy Centre for Economic and Social Studies and Research in Africa (MBC), Sudanese Researcher Foundation (SRF) and the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA). The conference brought together about 120 food security and nutrition experts from civil society, private sector, academia and international organizations and many other online participants who followed the proceedings on a livestream. The conference happened against a backdrop of the timely discussions on the risk of rising poverty and food insecurity to Sudanese people, the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, climate change, and global increase in fuel and commodity prices and the slow post COVID-19 recovery.

The implications of market liberalization and world price movements for wheat price policy in Sudan

Wheat is an essential commodity in Sudan and a staple for millions. It is second only to sorghum as a key source of calories. The demand for wheat has grown over the last two decades because of a growing population and changing consumer preferences for bread and other wheat products. Domestic farming provides only about 15 percent of the national wheat requirement. The rest is imported mainly from the Black Sea port (Russia and Ukraine). With the Sudanese wheat growing season approaching, this policy brief observes the movement of domestic and international wheat prices and analyzes the possible implications of a reduction in real prices on production, imports, and consumption of wheat products.

Wheat subsidies, wheat markets and food security in Sudan: Current state and options for the future

This policy note summarizes the key findings from the following four research papers prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute with financial support by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID): 1. Bottlenecks in Sudan’s Wheat Value Chains: Insights from Surveys 2. Evaluating Cereal Market (Dis)Integration in Sudan 3. Distributional Consequences of Wheat Policy in Sudan: A Simulation Model Analysis 4. Political Economy of Wheat Value Chains in Post-Revolution Sudan