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The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

2024Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H.

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The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H.

Citation

Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; and Mohamed, Shima. 2024. The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair. SSSP Working Paper 23. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168432

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Conflicts; Migration; Food Security; Health; Displacement; Livelihoods; Market Access

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

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Working Paper

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Working Paper

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

2024Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

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Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu S.; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan. SSSP Working Paper 21. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168417

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Conflicts; Employment; Income; Remittances; Food Security; Food Consumption

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

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Working Paper

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Working Paper

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

2024Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

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Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan. SSSP Working Paper 22. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168162

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Development; Households; Water; Energy; Food Security; Health; Socioeconomic Environment; Rural Urban Relations

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

NEXUS Gains

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Working Paper

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Working Paper

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

2024Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam

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Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; and Raouf, Mariam. 2024. Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection. Sudan Strategy Support Program Working Paper 21. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168104

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Conflicts; Economic Impact; Poverty; Nutrition; Agricultural Sector; Social Protection; Infrastructure

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

2024Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid

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What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024? SSSP Working Paper 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168102

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Conflicts; Economic Impact; Employment; Income; Poverty; Agrifood Systems; Resilience; Social Protection

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities

2024Alfadul, Hanan; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.

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Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities

Livestock in Sudan plays a crucial role in the national economy, particularly in alleviating poverty and enhancing food security. Despite its significance, the last comprehensive livestock census for the country was conducted in 1975, resulting in now outdated and often unreliable data. Recent estimates by USAID indicate that Sudan ranks among the top three African countries in terms of livestock numbers, with an estimated 105.6 million animals. The livestock population in Sudan is predominantly composed of camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. The spatial distribution of livestock is variable and influenced by local factors such as feed resources, land use, and ecological conditions. The Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur regions have the largest livestock numbers. However, discrepancies between official statistics and field data show the need for updated and accurate livestock data. The livestock sector provides 40 percent of employment and 34 percent of Sudan’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The livestock sector is a vital source of foreign exchange for the Sudanese economy through exports of livestock and livestock products. Besides its economic contributions, the livestock sector provides essential food products, including meat, eggs, and milk, and draught power for agricultural operations and transportation, particularly in rural areas. However, relative to irrigated agriculture, the sector faces challenges due to underinvestment and minimal government attention.

Year published

2024

Authors

Alfadul, Hanan; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.

Citation

Alfadul, Hanan; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab; Abushama, Hala; and Kirui, Oliver. 2024. Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities. Sudan SSP Working Paper 19. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/151697

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Africa; Livestock; Poverty; Food Security; Exports; Employment; Animal Products

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Sudan Rural Household Survey 2023: Sampling and implementation procedures for the first round

2024Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Details

Sudan Rural Household Survey 2023: Sampling and implementation procedures for the first round

This paper describes the data collection methodology for the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), the first nationwide survey of rural households in Sudan following the eruption of violent conflict in April 2023. The SRHS, which was conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Development Program and the World Food Program, represents a significant effort to understand the dynamics of rural households in Sudan during a period of profound national conflict. The survey focuses on several critical themes central to household welfare, including food security, coping strategies, employment and income, livelihoods, assets, market access, and exposure to shocks. Analysis of the survey data can provide comprehensive insights into the resilience of and challenges faced by rural communities in Sudan. Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) methods were used to navigate the challenges of data collection in a conflict setting. The use of CATI demonstrated the adaptability and potential of innovative research methodologies in conflict-affected regions. The survey, the first round in a planned panel survey program, aims to establish a baseline of rural life, economic activities, and food security in Sudan. Panel survey data offers invaluable information to counter several analytical biases inherent to the conclusions drawn from other data structures. Subsequent rounds of the SRHS are planned for the second and fourth quarters of 2024.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. Sudan Rural Household Survey 2023: Sampling and implementation procedures for the first round. Sudan SSP Working Paper 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141598

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Development; Conflicts; Food Security; Households; Rural Areas; Surveys; Telephone Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey

2023Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Details

Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey

This study addresses the impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan on smallholder farmers' intentions and challenges during the 2023 summer agricultural season. A nationally representative survey of 3,284 smallholder farmers was conducted. Due to the security hazards and connectivity challenges, we used a combination of three interview types, Interactive Voice Recording (IVR), Computer-Assisted-Tele phone-Interviews (CATI) and face-to-face (in-person) interviews. Key findings are that close to a third of the farmers were displaced from their farms’ locations and 40 percent were unable to prepare for plant ing season because of the conflict. Most of the farmers who did not prepare for the summer season at the time of the interview were not intending to plant later in the season. The key challenges that pre vented them from planting were the lack of finance to buy agricultural inputs (such as seeds and fertiliz ers) and/or to hire farm labor. This is compounded by bad weather conditions, poor quality of the local seed varieties, higher cost of improved seeds, and delayed rains (climate challenges). In addition, the ongoing conflict has had direct and indirect impacts that prevented many farmers from planting this season. It disrupted market functionality and reduced the availability of and/or raised the cost of agricul tural inputs and farm labor. The lack of finances has also seen farmers reduce the size of the area they planted this season compared to last year’s season. The compounding challenges of these reduced production are expected to be felt as soon as the harvest season begins. The implications suggest the need for rapid intervention to support farmers during the harvest and winter seasons to mitigate the im pact of the conflict on agricultural activities.

Year published

2023

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Abushama, Hala; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Citation

Kirui, Oliver; Siddig, Khalid; Ahmed, Mosab; Abushama, Hala; and Seyoum, Taffesse. 2023. Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey. Sudan SSP Working Paper 17. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137064.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Inputs; Surveys; Planting Date; Agriculture; Smallholders; Weather; Conflicts; Displacement; Finance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137064 Source record

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Working Paper

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Working Paper

Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system

2023Abushama, Hala; Resnick, Danielle; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.

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Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system

This study assesses the political economy of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that brought out in April 2023, resulting in massive violence, displacement, and threats to food security. Based on a series of key informant interviews and other secondary materials, this study identifies that the primary underlying driver of the conflict relates to the rise of competition between the SAF and RSF over productive resources, including within the agri-food system. This scenario has been facilitated by a longstanding lack of scrutiny, accountability, and transparency over the distribution of economic rents and commercial holdings between the two factions. Additionally, the capture of rents from different industries and resources has been a key contributor to the geographic expansion of the conflict. As the conflict continues to rage between the two groups and their associates, it continues to impose considerable impacts on different actors within the agri-food system, posing significant challenges to the planting season and crop production, introducing blockades of trade routes, and a near cessation of agro-processing. We discuss these aspects of the ensuing conflict in view of the uncertainty about political and economic developments and propose policy recommendations for rebuilding Sudan’s agri-food system holistically under different scenarios.

Year published

2023

Authors

Abushama, Hala; Resnick, Danielle; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.

Citation

Abushama, Hala; Resnick, Danielle; Siddig, Khalid; and Kirui, Oliver K. 2023. Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system. Sudan SSP Working Paper 15. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/137896

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Agrifood Systems; Conflicts; Economics; Food Security; Politics

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136946 Source record

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Working Paper

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Working Paper

The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty

2023Siddig, Khalid; Raouf, Mariam; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.

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The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty

The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting.

Year published

2023

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Raouf, Mariam; Ahmed, Mosab O. M.

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Raouf, Mariam; and Ahmed, Mosab O. M. 2023. The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty. Sudan SSP Working Paper 12. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136843.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Financial Institutions; Models; Production; Household Income; Markets; Trade; Economic Activities; Infrastructure; Livelihoods; Conflicts; Poverty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136843 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms

2023Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Abushama, Hala; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Details

Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms

This study assesses how agri-food processing enterprises have been affected during the first 3 months of the on-going conflict in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Force (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The food processing and beverage manufacturing sector plays a significant role as a source of food, employment, and value addition in Sudan. Thus, the ensuing conflict will have both direct and indirect negative consequences to livelihoods and food security. We collected data from representatives of food processing and beverage manufacturing companies throughout Sudan via web-based interviews. The findings highlight the immediate implications of the conflict on the agri-food processing and manufacturing sector. The impact of the conflict has immediately extended beyond direct destruction of the infrastructure and equipment of the firms to cause serious negative employment effects. Furthermore, it led to a growing scarcity of the key material inputs/raw materials and an associated spike in the price of these key ingredients to the production processes. We discuss the implications of these findings vis-à-vis the fluid nature of the continuing conflict and propose some options in preparations to rebuilding the agri-food enterprises once the cessation of hostilities and the end of conflict is achieved.

Year published

2023

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Abushama, Hala; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Citation

Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Abushama, Hala; and Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum. 2023. Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms. Sudan SSP Working Paper 11. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136835.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Beverage Industry; Inputs; Employment; Livelihoods; Infrastructure; Food Security; Conflicts; Agrifood Sector; Food Processing

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136835 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

2023Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James

Details

Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Based on a set of economywide databases for Sudan that have detailed content on agricultural production and processing, this study diagnoses the transformation of Sudan’s agrifood system against a background of broad economic growth and transformation. Sudan’s agrifood system registered only modest GDP growth between 2011 and 2019. Moreover, little change was seen in the structure of the system over this period. The share of total employment in agriculture fell significantly, contributing to some structural change in the broad economy. However, agriculture continues to absorb almost half of Sudan’s total employment, while having the lowest labor productivity across the main economic sectors. The growth in Sudan’s agrifood system between 2011 and 2019 was mainly driven by expansion in domestic market-oriented value chains. Agrifood value chains that are focused on exportable or imported commodities remain small with below average growth. Comparing sources of future growth in Sudan’s agrifood system across ten different agrifood value chains shows that fruits, root crops, and cereals rank highest in their potential to contribute to a range of development outcomes, including reductions in poverty, improvement in diet quality, job creation, and growth in national GDP. Although the livestock ranks lower per unit of growth, it is distinct from the higher-ranked value chains in that it has a sizable impact on all four development outcomes, while as a large and established sector in Sudan even small gains in productivity can have significant impacts in absolute terms.

Year published

2023

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid; and Thurlow, James. 2023. Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation. Sudan SSP Working Paper 9. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136809.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Value Chains; Economic Aspects; Agricultural Production; Commodities; Employment; Capacity Development; Labour Productivity; Agrifood Systems; Diet Quality; Gross National Product; Poverty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136809 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data

2023Abushama, Hala; Guo, Zhe; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abay, Kibrom A.; You, Liangzhi

Details

Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data

The confrontation in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had persisted for months before escalating into an armed conflict on April 15th, 2023. Besides the severe humanitarian catastrophe, the war has disrupted access to power, water, health services, and banking services while also disrupting access to markets triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. The conflict has destroyed key infrastructure, constraining domestic and international trade and disrupting production activities and supply chains. In this paper, we utilize satellite data to provide a swift analysis of how the conflict has changed patterns of economic activity, which are bound to have severe implications on food security in Sudan. We also describe how remote sensing and data collection methods can be deployed to monitor economic activities amidst armed conflicts.

Year published

2023

Authors

Abushama, Hala; Guo, Zhe; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abay, Kibrom A.; You, Liangzhi

Citation

Abushama, Hala; Guo, Zhe; Siddig, Khalid; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abay, Kibrom A.; and You, Liangzhi. 2023. Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data. Sudan SSP Working Paper 7. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136724.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Data; Satellite Observation; Nitrogen Dioxide; Economic Activities; Conflicts; Air Pollution; Air Quality

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136724 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

A 2019 nexus social accounting matrix for Sudan

2023Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid

Details

A 2019 nexus social accounting matrix for Sudan

Nexus SAMs aims to improve the quality and standardize the construction process of SAMs using a standard toolkit that enables tracing data sources and assumptions. The unified structure of nexus SAMs allows for more robust cross-country comparisons of economies, especially the sectoral composition, allocation of government spending and trade orientation. The 2019 SAM for Sudan is a snapshot capturing the structure of the Sudanese Economy and depicting the different transactions between the production activities, factors of production and other income generating and consuming entities in the economy besides the good and services (produced and consumed). The circular flow of income is completed by including the accounts for enterprises, government, and rest of the world. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) relied on both international and local data sources to develop the first Nexus SAM for Sudan for the year 2019. The leading domestic data sources are the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MFEP) and the Ministry of Human Resources Development and Labor (MHRDL). Like other Nexus SAMs, the Sudan SAM puts a strong emphasis on the household accounts by providing details on both income and expenditure sides as well as savings. We used a household income and expenditure survey to disaggregate the household account into income deciles both in rural and urban areas. The SAM also provides disaggregated representation of production activities including 77 activities producing 79 commodities. Production factors included in the Nexus SAM for Sudan are labor, capital, and land. Labor is further classified by location to rural and urban, by gender to male and female, and by the level education to unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labor. Land and capital factors are left without further disaggregation.

Year published

2023

Authors

Randriamamonjy, Josee; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam; and Siddig, Khalid. 2023. A 2019 nexus social accounting matrix for Sudan. SSSP Working Paper 6. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136701.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Data; Households; Gender; Income; Production; Trade; Surveys; Commodities; Labour; Capital; Land

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136701 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

An assessment of Sudan’s wheat value chains: Exploring key bottlenecks and challenges

2022Abdelaziz, Fatma; William, Amy; Abay, Kibrom A.; Siddig, Khalid

Details

An assessment of Sudan’s wheat value chains: Exploring key bottlenecks and challenges

Wheat is a strategic and political good in Sudan and has played a central role in the country’s economy during successive regimes. Disruptions in Sudan’s wheat value chain usually leads to shortages of wheat bread, price spikes, and political unrest. With the objective of ensuring sufficient grain supplies for domestic consumption, Sudan’s domestic and imported wheat sectors have been subject to several government interventions over the last decades. Most interventions have focused on and aimed to (i) stimulate domestic production, (ii) ensure a reliable flow of wheat imports to compensate for low domestic wheat production, and (iii) monitor wheat flour and bread distribution processes to limit leakage and wastage. Sudan has two distinct wheat value chains: one for imported wheat and one for domestic wheat. The imported wheat value chain involves three major actors: milling companies, wheat flour agents, and bakeries. The domestic (locally produced) wheat value chain involves four main actors: wheat producers, wheat grain wholesalers, wheat grain retailers, and consumers. To understand the landscape of the wheat sector in Sudan, this report relies on rapid assessment surveys of the main wheat value chain actors. The aim is to closely identify different value chain actors’ distinct roles of the and to explore their linkages. The report evaluates and identifies key bottlenecks that likely cause wheat and bread supply disruptions while also shedding light on untapped opportunities and possible policy options to improve the functioning of Sudan’s wheat sector. We document wheat value chain actors’ policy preferences, which vary depending on whether actors are engaged in the domestic or the imported value chain. The report highlights the differential impact of COVID-19 and related mobility restrictions on wheat value chain members. For example, while wheat production remains mostly unaffected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the marketing, trade, and distribution of wheat and wheat flour has been adversely affected by it.

Year published

2022

Authors

Abdelaziz, Fatma; William, Amy; Abay, Kibrom A.; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Abdelaziz, Fatma; William, Amy; Abay, Kibrom A.; and Siddig, Khalid. 2022. An assessment of Sudan’s wheat value chains: Exploring key bottlenecks and challenges. Sudan SSP Working Paper 4. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.135876.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Value Chains; Policies; Covid-19; Farmers; Retail; Wholesale Markets; Assessment; Domestic Production; Wheat; Prices; International Trade; Governance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.135876 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Prioritizing development policy research in Sudan: An innovative approach to guide IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program

2022Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Breisinger, Clemens; Dorosh, Paul A.; Kassim, Yumna

Details

Prioritizing development policy research in Sudan: An innovative approach to guide IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program

This paper presents an innovative approach to prioritizing development policy research in Sudan with the specific objective of informing the research agenda of the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The key steps in this process were: A review of relevant priority setting methods and existing government strategies, Pre-selection of research themes, Selection of national and international experts, Design and conduct priority setting workshop; and Priority matrix construction and paper writing. The paper suggests key research priorities for Sudan, which are both highly relevant to Sudan’s current and future development policy agenda and consistent with IFPRI’s own comparative advantage and strategy. It identifies research areas and topics under five main themes, namely: 1. Agricultural production, 2. Markets and trade, 3. Livelihoods and nutrition, 4. Development strategy and investment planning, and 5. Increasing resilience of farming under growing climate challenges. Tackling the priority research tasks identified in this paper, for these five themes, is expected to help reduce poverty and improve food and nutrition security in Sudan. However, strengthening the links between policy research and decision-making will be crucial to ensure that evidence-based solutions are relevant and have a positive impact on people’s lives.

Year published

2022

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Breisinger, Clemens; Dorosh, Paul A.; Kassim, Yumna

Citation

Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid; Breisinger, Clemens; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Kassim, Yumna. 2022. Prioritizing development policy research in Sudan: An innovative approach to guide IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program. Sudan SSP Working Paper 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.135835.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Agricultural Products; Investment; Research; Development Policies; Markets; Nutrition; Trade; Livelihoods; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.135835 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Evaluating cereal market (dis)integration in Sudan

2022Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens; Siddig, Khalid

Details

Evaluating cereal market (dis)integration in Sudan

This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.

Year published

2022

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Abdelfattah, Lina Alaaeldin; Breisinger, Clemens; and Siddig, Khalid. 2022. Evaluating cereal market (dis)integration in Sudan. Sudan SSP Working Paper 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134968.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Northern Africa; Efficiency; Cereals; Markets; Food Prices; Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134968 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Distributional consequences of wheat in Sudan: A simulation model analysis

2021Dorosh, Paul A.

Details

Distributional consequences of wheat in Sudan: A simulation model analysis

Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.

Year published

2021

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A. 2021. Distributional consequences of wheat in Sudan: A simulation model analysis. Sudan SSP Working Paper 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134867.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa; Value Chains; Models; Bread; Value Chain; Modelling; Trade; Wheat Flour; Wheat; Food Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134867 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Political economy of wheat value chains in post-revolution Sudan

2021Resnick, Danielle

Details

Political economy of wheat value chains in post-revolution Sudan

Wheat flour and bread have played a central role in Sudan’s political economy throughout the country’s post-independence history. In 2019, increasing bread prices precipitated the protests that ousted the government of Omar al-Bashir. How has Sudan’s recent political transition and economic circumstances impacted distortions within the wheat value chain? What are the preferences of relevant stakeholders for improving the affordability of wheat products and the productivity of domestic wheat farmers? This paper addresses these questions by drawing on key informant interviews in Sudan and utilizing a political settlements approach, which captures the underlying distribution of power among elites and citizens. The post-revolution political settlement contains a much broader distribution of power shared between a civilian alliance movement and the military, each of which has distinct interests in the wheat value chain. The paper elucidates the preferences of different stakeholders to address distortions and discusses bottlenecks that need to be overcome for those options to be feasible. In doing so, the analysis reveals that, while the of subsidizing bread remains contentious, there are broader coalitions for interventions related to regulatory and monitoring reforms, improvements in domestic wheat procurement, enhanced agricultural investments, and targeted cash transfers to cushion subsidy reductions.

Year published

2021

Authors

Resnick, Danielle

Citation

Resnick, Danielle. 2021. Political economy of wheat value chains in post-revolution Sudan. Sudan SSP Working Paper 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134701.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Eastern Africa; Northern Africa; Value Chains; Bread; Value Chain; Social Protection; Trade; Cash Transfers; Wheat Flour; Wheat; Food Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134701 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

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