Discussion Papers

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities

Livestock in Sudan plays a crucial role in the national economy, particularly in alleviating poverty and enhancing food security. Despite its significance, the last comprehensive livestock census for the country was conducted in 1975, resulting in now outdated and often unreliable data. Recent estimates by USAID indicate that Sudan ranks among the top three African countries in terms of livestock numbers, with an estimated 105.6 million animals. The livestock population in Sudan is predominantly composed of camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. The spatial distribution of livestock is variable and influenced by local factors such as feed resources, land use, and ecological conditions. The Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur regions have the largest livestock numbers. However, discrepancies between official statistics and field data show the need for updated and accurate livestock data. The livestock sector provides 40 percent of employment and 34 percent of Sudan’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The livestock sector is a vital source of foreign exchange for the Sudanese economy through exports of livestock and livestock products. Besides its economic contributions, the livestock sector provides essential food products, including meat, eggs, and milk, and draught power for agricultural operations and transportation, particularly in rural areas. However, relative to irrigated agriculture, the sector faces challenges due to underinvestment and minimal government attention.

Sudan Rural Household Survey 2023: Sampling and implementation procedures for the first round

This paper describes the data collection methodology for the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), the first nationwide survey of rural households in Sudan following the eruption of violent conflict in April 2023. The SRHS, which was conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Development Program and the World Food Program, represents a significant effort to understand the dynamics of rural households in Sudan during a period of profound national conflict. The survey focuses on several critical themes central to household welfare, including food security, coping strategies, employment and income, livelihoods, assets, market access, and exposure to shocks. Analysis of the survey data can provide comprehensive insights into the resilience of and challenges faced by rural communities in Sudan. Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) methods were used to navigate the challenges of data collection in a conflict setting. The use of CATI demonstrated the adaptability and potential of innovative research methodologies in conflict-affected regions. The survey, the first round in a planned panel survey program, aims to establish a baseline of rural life, economic activities, and food security in Sudan. Panel survey data offers invaluable information to counter several analytical biases inherent to the conclusions drawn from other data structures. Subsequent rounds of the SRHS are planned for the second and fourth quarters of 2024.

Building community resilience for food security in a shock-prone country

In a world rocked by environmental, political, and economic shocks, achieving resilience has emerged as a goal because it captures the essence of well-being over time despite the inevitable ups and downs captured in snapshots of present circumstances. After decades of conflict and environmental shocks in South Sudan, including the eruption of civil war in 2013 shortly after its independence in 2011, communities there lack stability and suffer from exorbitantly high rates of food insecurity, poor health indicators, and low educational and livelihood opportunities. International development agencies have sought to support South Sudan, but years of financial investment have failed to alleviate recurrent humanitarian crises. This paper outlines a general framework for resilience and resilience measurement, assesses initial baseline data collected from South Sudan, and builds a novel quantitative and qualitative methodology for measuring community resilience in countries like South Sudan burdened by shocks and weak institutions.

Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey

This study addresses the impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan on smallholder farmers' intentions and challenges during the 2023 summer agricultural season. A nationally representative survey of 3,284 smallholder farmers was conducted. Due to the security hazards and connectivity challenges, we used a combination of three interview types, Interactive Voice Recording (IVR), Computer-Assisted-Tele phone-Interviews (CATI) and face-to-face (in-person) interviews. Key findings are that close to a third of the farmers were displaced from their farms’ locations and 40 percent were unable to prepare for plant ing season because of the conflict. Most of the farmers who did not prepare for the summer season at the time of the interview were not intending to plant later in the season. The key challenges that pre vented them from planting were the lack of finance to buy agricultural inputs (such as seeds and fertiliz ers) and/or to hire farm labor. This is compounded by bad weather conditions, poor quality of the local seed varieties, higher cost of improved seeds, and delayed rains (climate challenges). In addition, the ongoing conflict has had direct and indirect impacts that prevented many farmers from planting this season. It disrupted market functionality and reduced the availability of and/or raised the cost of agricul tural inputs and farm labor. The lack of finances has also seen farmers reduce the size of the area they planted this season compared to last year’s season. The compounding challenges of these reduced production are expected to be felt as soon as the harvest season begins. The implications suggest the need for rapid intervention to support farmers during the harvest and winter seasons to mitigate the im pact of the conflict on agricultural activities.

Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system

This study assesses the political economy of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that brought out in April 2023, resulting in massive violence, displacement, and threats to food security. Based on a series of key informant interviews and other secondary materials, this study identifies that the primary underlying driver of the conflict relates to the rise of competition between the SAF and RSF over productive resources, including within the agri-food system. This scenario has been facilitated by a longstanding lack of scrutiny, accountability, and transparency over the distribution of economic rents and commercial holdings between the two factions. Additionally, the capture of rents from different industries and resources has been a key contributor to the geographic expansion of the conflict. As the conflict continues to rage between the two groups and their associates, it continues to impose considerable impacts on different actors within the agri-food system, posing significant challenges to the planting season and crop production, introducing blockades of trade routes, and a near cessation of agro-processing. We discuss these aspects of the ensuing conflict in view of the uncertainty about political and economic developments and propose policy recommendations for rebuilding Sudan’s agri-food system holistically under different scenarios.

The economy-wide impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict: Implications on economic activity, agrifood system and poverty

The armed conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan entered its sixth month since it erupted on April 15th, 2023, with no signs of ending soon. The war has caused severe humanitarian catastrophe, destroyed key infrastructure, and constrained trade and production activities. Moreover, it disrupted access to public utilities, financial services, and markets, hence, triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. In this paper, we utilize a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Multiplier modeling framework to assess the economywide implications of these disruptions of economic activity, productive resources, and livelihoods. Results reveal that the economy would shrink to nearly half its size before the war, household incomes decline by more than 40 percent in urban and rural areas, and the number of poor people increase by 1.8 million if the war continues until the end of the year. The impact would have been two thirds less should the war have ended before July 2023 and would be one third less if it would end before October 2023. This study therefore calls for rapid interventions from all relevant parties to help reach an end to the fighting.

Armed conflict and business operations in Sudan: Survey evidence from agri-food processing firms

This study assesses how agri-food processing enterprises have been affected during the first 3 months of the on-going conflict in Sudan between the Sudan Armed Force (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The food processing and beverage manufacturing sector plays a significant role as a source of food, employment, and value addition in Sudan. Thus, the ensuing conflict will have both direct and indirect negative consequences to livelihoods and food security. We collected data from representatives of food processing and beverage manufacturing companies throughout Sudan via web-based interviews. The findings highlight the immediate implications of the conflict on the agri-food processing and manufacturing sector. The impact of the conflict has immediately extended beyond direct destruction of the infrastructure and equipment of the firms to cause serious negative employment effects. Furthermore, it led to a growing scarcity of the key material inputs/raw materials and an associated spike in the price of these key ingredients to the production processes. We discuss the implications of these findings vis-à-vis the fluid nature of the continuing conflict and propose some options in preparations to rebuilding the agri-food enterprises once the cessation of hostilities and the end of conflict is achieved.

Sudan’s agrifood system: Structure and drivers of transformation

Based on a set of economywide databases for Sudan that have detailed content on agricultural production and processing, this study diagnoses the transformation of Sudan’s agrifood system against a background of broad economic growth and transformation. Sudan’s agrifood system registered only modest GDP growth between 2011 and 2019. Moreover, little change was seen in the structure of the system over this period. The share of total employment in agriculture fell significantly, contributing to some structural change in the broad economy. However, agriculture continues to absorb almost half of Sudan’s total employment, while having the lowest labor productivity across the main economic sectors. The growth in Sudan’s agrifood system between 2011 and 2019 was mainly driven by expansion in domestic market-oriented value chains. Agrifood value chains that are focused on exportable or imported commodities remain small with below average growth. Comparing sources of future growth in Sudan’s agrifood system across ten different agrifood value chains shows that fruits, root crops, and cereals rank highest in their potential to contribute to a range of development outcomes, including reductions in poverty, improvement in diet quality, job creation, and growth in national GDP. Although the livestock ranks lower per unit of growth, it is distinct from the higher-ranked value chains in that it has a sizable impact on all four development outcomes, while as a large and established sector in Sudan even small gains in productivity can have significant impacts in absolute terms.

The architecture of the Sudanese agricultural sector and its contribution to the economy between 1990 and 2021

The paper reviews the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector over the last three decades (1990 through 2021) and examines the drivers of that performance. Key findings show that the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product was greater during the 1990–1999 period than during the other two decades; agricultural productivity as well was higher in that decade than in the subsequent two decades. The sector has remained a major source of employment and livelihood. During the last decade reviewed (2010–2021), the sector regained its leading position as a generator of foreign currency. Public investment in agriculture and government spending allocated to the sector were lower than in other countries in the region. Political elites have generally lacked commitment to development plans in the sector. Political developments in Sudan have disrupted more recent efforts to revitalize the sector. Climate change, as manifested in rising temperature, declining rainfall, and drought, is a substantial determinant currently affecting the sector. The paper discusses some broad recommendations for improving the performance of the Sudanese agricultural sector.

Monitoring indicators of economic activity in Sudan amidst ongoing conflict using satellite data

The confrontation in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had persisted for months before escalating into an armed conflict on April 15th, 2023. Besides the severe humanitarian catastrophe, the war has disrupted access to power, water, health services, and banking services while also disrupting access to markets triggering considerable scarcity of goods and services. The conflict has destroyed key infrastructure, constraining domestic and international trade and disrupting production activities and supply chains. In this paper, we utilize satellite data to provide a swift analysis of how the conflict has changed patterns of economic activity, which are bound to have severe implications on food security in Sudan. We also describe how remote sensing and data collection methods can be deployed to monitor economic activities amidst armed conflicts.

A 2019 nexus social accounting matrix for Sudan

Nexus SAMs aims to improve the quality and standardize the construction process of SAMs using a standard toolkit that enables tracing data sources and assumptions. The unified structure of nexus SAMs allows for more robust cross-country comparisons of economies, especially the sectoral composition, allocation of government spending and trade orientation. The 2019 SAM for Sudan is a snapshot capturing the structure of the Sudanese Economy and depicting the different transactions between the production activities, factors of production and other income generating and consuming entities in the economy besides the good and services (produced and consumed). The circular flow of income is completed by including the accounts for enterprises, government, and rest of the world. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) relied on both international and local data sources to develop the first Nexus SAM for Sudan for the year 2019. The leading domestic data sources are the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS), the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MFEP) and the Ministry of Human Resources Development and Labor (MHRDL). Like other Nexus SAMs, the Sudan SAM puts a strong emphasis on the household accounts by providing details on both income and expenditure sides as well as savings. We used a household income and expenditure survey to disaggregate the household account into income deciles both in rural and urban areas. The SAM also provides disaggregated representation of production activities including 77 activities producing 79 commodities. Production factors included in the Nexus SAM for Sudan are labor, capital, and land. Labor is further classified by location to rural and urban, by gender to male and female, and by the level education to unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labor. Land and capital factors are left without further disaggregation.

Determinants of resilience for food and nutrition security in South Sudan

The paper analyzes the determinants of long-term individual and community resilience for food and nutrition security in South Sudan using data from multiple sources including key informant interviews, household and community surveys, and georeferenced secondary data on climate, agricultural production, irrigation, and market access. Major agricultural development constraints as well as incidence of and responses to shocks and conflict are described. Climate-crop modeling and simulation methods are used to evaluate the constraints and to identify crop investment options. Then, a spatial typology of food and nutrition security is used to evaluate the constraints along the production-to-nutrition pathway to identify interventions that target different segments of the chain and options for improving agriculture and broader development outcomes. These are classified into production, access, and utilization efficiencies, and whether the underlying constraints are structural (i.e., level of efficiency remains the same over time) or stochastic (i.e., level of efficiency changes over time). The analysis is focused on about a dozen selected counties. The results show that development challenges are being compounded by climate change, with significant increases in the mean annual rainfall and daily maximum temperature for the warmest month. Between 1975 and 2016 for example, the mean annual rainfall in the selected counties increased by 40-111 mm/year, with a rise in the intensity of 0.2-1.3 mm per event. The daily maximum temperature for the warmest month increased by 2.0-3.2°C. If these trends (especially for temperature) continue to 2050, crop yields are projected to decline in the selected counties on average by 12-23% for sorghum, 9-18% for maize, 19-30% for groundnuts, and 16-24% for cassava. In general, there is an inverse-U-shaped the relationship between temperature and yields. While the peak of the inverse U varies by crop, time of the growing season, and other factors, crops in South Sudan are typically on the downward sloping side of the inverse U implying that increases in temperature will decrease yields (and at an increasing rate). Results of a spatial typology show that a majority (78%) of the selected counties are classified as having medium production efficiency and 22% as low production efficiency, none with high production efficiency. With respect to access to nutritious food, 55%, 29%, and 17% of the counties are classified as low, medium, and high access efficiency, respectively. And regarding the conversion of food access into nutritional status, 37%, 26%, and 37% are classified as low, medium, and high utilization efficiency, respectively. Whereas production efficiency mostly remains constant over time, (with only 24% of the counties recording substantial changes in efficiency level), access and utilization efficiency appear more volatile (with substantial changes observed in 52% of the counties). These results suggest that the access segment of the production-to-nutrition value chain is the most constraining, followed by the utilization segment. The differences in the results across counties reflect differences in development constraints across the country, which are also described. Implications of the results for building long-term individual and community resilience are discussed, in addition to areas for further research. Given the complex nature of crises facing South Sudan, our findings call for a comprehensive policy approach to address not only the urgent humanitarian crisis but also to help restore agricultural production systems as well as support communities to cope, recover, and build their vii resilience to shocks and crises. This is in line with the Partnership for Recovery and Resilience (PfRR) integrated programme framework for resilience which comprises four pillars: i) re-establish access to basic services, ii) rebuild trust in people and institutions, iii) restore productive capacities, and iv) nurture effective partnerships.

An assessment of Sudan’s wheat value chains: Exploring key bottlenecks and challenges

Wheat is a strategic and political good in Sudan and has played a central role in the country’s economy during successive regimes. Disruptions in Sudan’s wheat value chain usually leads to shortages of wheat bread, price spikes, and political unrest. With the objective of ensuring sufficient grain supplies for domestic consumption, Sudan’s domestic and imported wheat sectors have been subject to several government interventions over the last decades. Most interventions have focused on and aimed to (i) stimulate domestic production, (ii) ensure a reliable flow of wheat imports to compensate for low domestic wheat production, and (iii) monitor wheat flour and bread distribution processes to limit leakage and wastage. Sudan has two distinct wheat value chains: one for imported wheat and one for domestic wheat. The imported wheat value chain involves three major actors: milling companies, wheat flour agents, and bakeries. The domestic (locally produced) wheat value chain involves four main actors: wheat producers, wheat grain wholesalers, wheat grain retailers, and consumers. To understand the landscape of the wheat sector in Sudan, this report relies on rapid assessment surveys of the main wheat value chain actors. The aim is to closely identify different value chain actors’ distinct roles of the and to explore their linkages. The report evaluates and identifies key bottlenecks that likely cause wheat and bread supply disruptions while also shedding light on untapped opportunities and possible policy options to improve the functioning of Sudan’s wheat sector. We document wheat value chain actors’ policy preferences, which vary depending on whether actors are engaged in the domestic or the imported value chain. The report highlights the differential impact of COVID-19 and related mobility restrictions on wheat value chain members. For example, while wheat production remains mostly unaffected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the marketing, trade, and distribution of wheat and wheat flour has been adversely affected by it.

Prioritizing development policy research in Sudan: An innovative approach to guide IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program

This paper presents an innovative approach to prioritizing development policy research in Sudan with the specific objective of informing the research agenda of the Sudan Strategy Support Program (Sudan SSP) of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The key steps in this process were: A review of relevant priority setting methods and existing government strategies, Pre-selection of research themes, Selection of national and international experts, Design and conduct priority setting workshop; and Priority matrix construction and paper writing. The paper suggests key research priorities for Sudan, which are both highly relevant to Sudan’s current and future development policy agenda and consistent with IFPRI’s own comparative advantage and strategy. It identifies research areas and topics under five main themes, namely: 1. Agricultural production, 2. Markets and trade, 3. Livelihoods and nutrition, 4. Development strategy and investment planning, and 5. Increasing resilience of farming under growing climate challenges. Tackling the priority research tasks identified in this paper, for these five themes, is expected to help reduce poverty and improve food and nutrition security in Sudan. However, strengthening the links between policy research and decision-making will be crucial to ensure that evidence-based solutions are relevant and have a positive impact on people’s lives.

Evaluating cereal market (dis)integration in Sudan

This paper evaluates spatial market and price transmission in cereal markets in Sudan, focusing on wheat and sorghum, two major cereal crops. We use comprehensive and long-ranging monthly cereal price data and a multivariate vector of error-correction cointegration models (VECM) to characterize both short-term and long-term price transmissions across local cereal markets. We find that among the 15 local wheat markets and 18 sorghum markets we can only detect significant spatial market integration among 7 wheat and 10 sorghum markets. Despite some strong spatial market integration among a few neighboring markets, there is no market integration between several regions. For example, cereal markets in Darfur are not integrated with cereal markets in the rest of the country. Among integrated markets, we observe significant variations in the strength of price transmission elasticities as well as speed of adjustment to longterm equilibrium, which implies that shocks (and price policies) in some markets can affect only some other markets. Most of the strong price transmission and spatial market dependence follow existing trade flows and road networks, insinuating that infrastructural barriers may be obstructing spatial market integration. We also find that markets in production surplus states are less responsive to price changes in neighboring markets than those located in cereal deficit states. Finally, we also observe relatively stronger spatial integration and short-term adjustment in sorghum markets than wheat markets. Shocks to sorghum prices in sorghum producing markets have permanent impact while shocks to wheat prices in wheat producing markets endure transitory effects. These findings have important policy implications for improving the efficiency of cereal markets in Sudan and other similar settings.

Distributional consequences of wheat in Sudan: A simulation model analysis

Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.

Political economy of wheat value chains in post-revolution Sudan

Wheat flour and bread have played a central role in Sudan’s political economy throughout the country’s post-independence history. In 2019, increasing bread prices precipitated the protests that ousted the government of Omar al-Bashir. How has Sudan’s recent political transition and economic circumstances impacted distortions within the wheat value chain? What are the preferences of relevant stakeholders for improving the affordability of wheat products and the productivity of domestic wheat farmers? This paper addresses these questions by drawing on key informant interviews in Sudan and utilizing a political settlements approach, which captures the underlying distribution of power among elites and citizens. The post-revolution political settlement contains a much broader distribution of power shared between a civilian alliance movement and the military, each of which has distinct interests in the wheat value chain. The paper elucidates the preferences of different stakeholders to address distortions and discusses bottlenecks that need to be overcome for those options to be feasible. In doing so, the analysis reveals that, while the of subsidizing bread remains contentious, there are broader coalitions for interventions related to regulatory and monitoring reforms, improvements in domestic wheat procurement, enhanced agricultural investments, and targeted cash transfers to cushion subsidy reductions.

Research guide for water-energy-food nexus analysis

The project titled “The Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Global, Basin and Local Case Studies of Resource Use Efficiency under Growing Natural Resource Scarcity“ (2015-2018), which was supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany, and was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems. The project set out to develop research methodologies and insights globally as well as for the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Organization (ENTRO) of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to support efforts for enhanced water, energy and food security and environmental sustainability. The toolkit describes both qualitative and quantitative methods that have been used in the research project. It is not meant to be an exhaustive list of information and tools related to the analysis of the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus. The overall focus of the tools has been on economic analysis of the linkages across water, energy and food--to complement other studies and method developments that focus on biophysical linkages across the WEF nexus. The toolkit is aimed, primarily, at researchers interested in the analysis of the water, energy and food nexus. However, the studies summarized here also provide insights for practitioners implementing Nexus projects.

A post-separation Social Accounting Matrix for the Sudan

The 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Sudan, with a special focus on agriculture, water, and energy, is built using data from domestic sources in the Sudan, including the Central Bureau of Statistics, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, and the Central Bank of Sudan, besides other external sources. Major data sets used include the 2012 National Accounts and Trade Statistics of the CBS, the 53rd Annual Report of the Central Bank of the Sudan, the 2011 Labor Force Survey, the 2009 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the 2009-2012 Agricultural Production Cost Survey, and the 2005 Industrial Survey. Data from external sources are used to complement national sources. These sources include IMF studies on government finances, FAO reports and data on agriculture, and ILO reports on labor. The SAM distinguishes between agricultural activities based on modes of irrigation, energy based on its major source, and water based on modes of production and types of uses. Land is divided into irrigated and non-irrigated, while natural water resources are added in a separate account. Households are categorized by state, location (rural and urban), and income quintiles. Labor accounts are differentiated based on location (rural and urban), skill level, and gender.

Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature

Several environmental changes have occurred in the Sudan in the past; several are ongoing; and others are projected to happen in the future. The Sudan has witnessed increases in temperature, floods, rainfall variability, and concurrent droughts. In a country where agriculture, which is mainly rainfed, is a major contributor to gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods, these changes are especially important, requiring measurement and analysis of their impact. This study not only analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change, but also consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions which may mitigate the effects. We feed climate forcing, water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modelling suite that includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth, all connected to the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). The outcomes of this part of the modeling suite are annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects of such changes on production, consumption, macroeconomic indicators, and income distribution are assessed using a single country dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic projections of crop yields until 2050. The results of the model simulations reveal that, while the projected mean climate changes bring some good news for the Sudan, extreme negative variability costs the Sudan cumulatively between 2018 and 2050 US$ 109.5 billion in total absorption and US$ 105.5 billion in GDP relative to a historical mean climate scenario without climate change.

Linking the economics of water, energy, and food: A nexus modeling approach

We use an innovative methodology to model the socioeconomic linkages between water, energy, and food in the East Nile Basin. Based upon a theoretical nexus framework, the methodology is expanded into a quantifiable modeling suite that under-lies the analysis of each of three country case studies. The advantages are that, despite resource shortages being a challenge, the modeling suite aids in devising policies and strategies that formulate these sectoral interdependencies and provide the evidence-based research results necessary for their design in a way that exploits synergies existing across sectors, countries, and regions (Al-Zubari n.d.). This paper lays out the methodology and gives an example of an application and scenarios by focusing on three countries in the East Nile Basin. This methodology paper will be followed by three individual country case studies that highlight the water, energy, and food nexus for each.

Addressing transboundary cooperation in the Eastern Nile through the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Insights from an E-survey and key informant interviews

The Nile is the lifeblood of northeastern Africa, and its roles for and interdependency with the national economies it traverses and binds together grow as it moves from source to sea. With rapid economic development—population growth, irrigation development, rural electrification, and overall economic growth—pressures on the Nile’s water resources are growing to unprecedented levels. These drivers of change have already contributed to stark changes in the hydropolitical regime, and new forms of cooperation and cross-sectoral collaboration are needed, particularly in the Eastern Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. As direct sharing of water resources is hampered by unilateral developments, the need has increased for broader, cross-sectoral collaboration around the water, energy, and food sectors. This study is conducted to assess and understand the challenges of and opportunities for cooperation across the water-energy-food nexus nationally in Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, as well as regionally across the Eastern Nile. To gather data, the paper uses an e-survey supplemented with key informant interviews geared toward national-level water, energy, and agriculture stakeholders, chiefly government staff and researchers. Findings from the survey tools suggest that most respondents strongly agree that collaboration across the water, energy, and agriculture sectors is essential to improve resource management in the region. At the same time, there is ample scope for improvement in collaboration across the water, energy, and food sectors nationally. Ministries of water, energy, and food were identified as the key nexus actors at national levels; these would also need to be engaged in regional cross-sectoral collaboration. Respondents also identified a wide range of desirable cross-sectoral actions and investments—both national and regional—chiefly, joint planning and operation of multipurpose infrastructure; investment in enhanced irrigation efficiency; joint rehabilitation of upstream catchments to reduce sedimentation and degradation; and investment in alternative renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar energy.

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: The role of public food stocks and cereal imports

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low per capita levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, political unrest, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. Agricultural productivity is low, and the country is highly dependent on private-sector imports of cereals (maize, sorghum, wheat, and rice) from Uganda to supply domestic markets. National household survey data indicate substantial diversity in consumption of cereals across households, and our econometric estimates suggest highly price- and income-inelastic demand for the two major cereals, sorghum and maize. Drawing on a review of international experience and the constraints facing South Sudan, we conclude that a national food security reserve (NFSR) system with a small national food security stock is feasible for South Sudan. Cereal stocks would be kept mainly for targeted safety nets and emergency distribution, and market interventions would be limited in scope, in keeping with a long-run goal of market development. Nonetheless, even with a functioning NFSR, promotion of private-sector domestic and import trade will remain crucial for ensuring adequate supplies of grain and food security

Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan

Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan

Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.

Measuring and accounting for community capabilities in Kordofan, Sudan

Parallel to the growing attention being devoted to the relationship between empowerment and development, an increasing number of tools are being developed to measure empowerment and determine the link between these two phenomena. This paper details the methodological processes used to construct, test and possibly refine one such instrument, the Community Capability Index, an innovative tool to measure community capabilities in the domain of natural resource governance. Empirical reference is made to research conducted in 85 villages in North and South Kordofan, Sudan. Following this, the paper presents findings from analyses of the determinants of community capabilities, including geographic, economic, and institutional variables. The results suggest that in Kordofan a number of factors influence capabilities. Possessing a village market, proximity to the nearest town, and access to credit are economic variables that have a significant and highly positive effect on community capabilities. Regarding the environment, capabilities are found to be greater where there is more rainfall, but access to groundwater from lower-quality aquifers and cracking clay soils have negative impacts on capabilities. War shocks, as might be expected, have a negative and significant effect. Particularly interesting is the generally weak correlation found between capabilities and wealth, along with strong correlations between institutional and social dimensions of community capabilities and participation in donor-funded projects. This combination suggests that development interventions must take into account the non-identity of poverty reduction and empowerment processes, at least when the targeted agents are communities rather than individuals or households. The findings reveal areas for further investigation into the relationship between the determinants and dimensions of capabilities, and the potential significance of the relationship for some dimensions suggests context-specific interventions to strengthen the relevant capabilities.

Managing conflict over natural resources in greater Kordofan, Sudan: Some recurrent patterns and governance implications

Despite the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which brought to an end 20 years of civil war in the Sudan, this country continues to experience smaller-scale conflicts, particularly around access to and control of natural resources. Some observers lay the blame for this on ethnopolitical or tribal divisions. However, this paper argues that there are a variety of factors at play behind these conflicts, notably the combination of resource scarcity with a crisis of governance that is particularly evident in transitional areas like the Kordofan region. To gain a sense of the range of conflicts around natural resources in Kordofan, the authors reviewed existing records such as government archives; conducted interviews with politicians, federal and state government officials, farmers, pastoralists, and Native Administration leaders; and investigated findings in the field. Interviews also served to examine people’s knowledge about government natural resource policies and their perceptions of the roles played by government and the Native Administration in conflict management and resolution. The paper presents 20 cases of stalemate competition or open conflict over natural resources in Kordofan. The cases center on (1) conflicts between farmers and herders over stock routes, gum arabic forests, gardens, watering points, and the use of dars (tribal homelands); (2) conflicts between herders and small farmers and government agents or large private investors over mechanized farming areas, oil infrastructure, and other private investments. In their analysis of natural resource governance in Sudan, the authors find that natural resources policies have often been weak foundations for sustainable resource use, and in some cases they have actually contributed to conflict. In addition, the volatile path of government devolution efforts concerning natural resources has undermined governance of these resources. While conflicts between farmers and herders were managed relatively successful in the past through customary land tenure systems, this is less and less the case today as a result of larger herds, reduced water and pasture, instability and prejudices stirred up by the war, and a proliferation of arms among herders. In addition, patron–client politics, weak natural resource management and development policies, and top-down government institutions have encouraged ethnic polarization and social divisions. The authors find that measures are needed to reform the process of natural resource management, making land use planning more comprehensive, building on local livelihood systems, and increasing public spending on infrastructure. In addition, sustainable property rights on farmland and on mobile resources should be redefined, and informal conflict management mechanisms restored to the extent that this is possible.

Understanding policy volatility in Sudan

In this paper we present the findings of a qualitative investigation into some dimensions and implications of policy volatility in the realms of natural resource (NR) governance and devolution in contemporary Sudan, with particular reference to Greater Kordofan. Our goal is to map out some aspects of the interplay between volatility, disempowerment processes affecting both state agents and the rural population, and certain problems of governance that are characteristic but not unique to Sudan. In particular, we argue that volatility is a dimension of poor governance worthy of investigation in its own right, as it is a primary ingredient of what we may call a “self-disempowering state,” where adaptive learning in policy processes is impeded and successful devolution faces particularly complex obstacles. The policy domain that we consider for analysis includes laws, regulations and policies enacted under the label of “Decentralization, Land Allocation and Land Use,” as well as large development projects supporting the decentralization or devolution of NR management to local communities in the region.

The impact of livestock and fisheries on food availability and demand in 2020

People in developed countries consume about 3 to 4 times as much meat and fish, and 5 to 6 times as much milk products per capita as in developing Asia and Africa. Yet, meat, milk, and fish consumption per capita has barely grown in the developed countries as a whole over the past 20 years. Growth in per capita consumption and production has occurred in developing regions such as developing Asia, where income has increased from a low level and urbanization is rapid. By 2020, according to projections by IFPRI's IMPACT model, the share of the developing countries in total world meat consumption will rise from 47 percent currently to 64 percent. The net impact on food access for the poor of the world will depend on their role as producers of meat, milk, and fish, their role as consumers, and their need for protein. The amount of cereals per capita consumed directly by rural people will decline as they diversify their diets into animal proteins, but feed use will increase greatly. Available evidence suggests that on balance poor consumers in developing countries will probably be better off.

Household responses to recurrent drought: a case study of the Kababish pastoralists in Northern Kordofan, Sudan

Drought, famine, and diaster management in Darfur, Sudan

Wheat subsidies in Sudan: policy implications and fiscal costs

Food consumption patterns in Western Sudan, 1978-80

Famine experience in a high-potential area in Sudan : village and household information from the Jebel Marra area in Darfur