Publications

Economic impacts of large dams on downstream brickmaking in developing countries

Large dams have positive and negative impacts, including disrupting brickmaking on the floodplains downstream due to flow regulation and sediment reduction, affecting the supply of essential construction material, notably in developing countries. In this study, we introduce an analytical framework to assess the economywide effects of large dams on downstream brickmaking, focusing on Traditional Fired Clay Brick (TFCB). The framework includes three steps: characterizing the impacts on river flow and sediment load using river system modeling and secondary data, understanding the role of TFCB production in the economy based on survey and economic data, and quantifying the economywide impacts of changes in TFCB production using dynamic computable general equilibrium modeling. We demonstrate the functionality of the approach by conducting a case study of the impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Sudanese economy due to changes in TFCB production by comparing two scenarios: “with GERD” and “no GERD.” Results show that Sudan’s accumulated (2023–2050) discounted (at 0.5% annually) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost would decline by US$ 6 billion (−0.38%) due to a reduction in TFCB production. Consumer flexibility regarding brick types and the ability of alternative brick sources to fill the demand gap are key determinants of the impacts.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Kenya

Despite progress in reducing child stunting over the past 15 years, Kenya is now facing new nutrition challenges, including overweight and obesity. The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), which is the coexistence of under- and overnutrition within individuals, households, and populations [1], manifests as child stunting and adult overweight (mostly in women) at the population and household levels. Dietary diversity is low and affects different population groups (particularly young children, adolescents, and women), predisposing them to micronutrient deficiencies. However, recent data on micronutrient intake and status are lacking. Households living in urban areas are vulnerable to being overweight, a consequence of increasingly unhealthy dietary patterns. In Kenya’s informal urban settlements, limited dietary diversity, reliance on cereals, and widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) contribute to high rates of child stunting, underweight, and the DBM, with affordability and accessibility driving food choices. Compounding factors include food safety concerns, clustering of unhealthy food vendors, and external shocks. Urban nutrition interventions have had mixed results, with some programs improving child health and maternal knowledge, but others showing no significant impact. Kenya aims to eliminate malnutrition by 2027, but national policies focus mostly on rural areas, leaving urban nutrition challenges insufficiently addressed. Programs such as Afya Jiji and the Nairobi City County Food System Strategy target urban health, but gaps in urban-specific strategies, poor coordination, and limited funding hinder progress. The national school meals program serves only a small portion of schools, and urban food policies are still underdeveloped.

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2025?

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has triggered severe economic contractions, exacerbating poverty and unemployment while disrupting key sectors of the economy. This study employs an updated economywide database to assess the economic impact of a continued conflict through the end of 2025 under two scenarios of extreme and moderate contractions in the overall GDP. Our findings indicate that by the end of 2025, Sudan’s GDP would decline by 42% under the extreme scenario and 32% under the moderate scenario. The agrifood system would be particularly affected, with its GDP contracting by 33.6% and employment halving under the extreme scenario. Household incomes decline across all quintiles, with rural populations and women experiencing the sharpest losses. The national poverty rate is projected to rise by 19 percentage points under the extreme scenario, further deepening socioeconomic vulnerabilities. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, support the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Finding aid IFPRI SlideShare

This is an export of https://www.slideshare.net/ifpri of presentations. All records are migrated to CGSpace individually and this table is retained for the purpose of archival reference. Table as of 10 June 2025.

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan's GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan's GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.

Evaluating hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change uncertainties

Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts.

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

Income, employment, transfers, and household welfare dynamics before and during the conflict in Sudan

This study examines the impact in Sudan of conflict on employment and incomes and the effect of remittances and assistance received by a household on its food insecurity and food consumption. The analyses use data from the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS), the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey (SUHS). Conflict is found to significantly increase the likelihood of employment and income loss, particularly among female-headed and displaced households. Receipt of remittances does not have a significant effect on the food security or food consumption of a household. In contrast, whether a household receives assistance is associated with higher food insecurity and lower food consumption, likely reflecting the targeting of assistance programs toward vulnerable households. However, due to the cross sectional nature of the data, causal relationships cannot be established. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support the food security and welfare of households affected by the current conflict in Sudan, particularly through efforts to stabilize employment and incomes.

Cointegration analysis of sesame prices in Ethiopian commodity exchange warehouses

This study examines the cointegration of sesame market prices in eight Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) warehouses and its implications for improving the functioning of sesame markets. We analyzed 489 weekly market price data points for each of the eight ECX warehouses, covering the period from end of 2014 to mid-2024. We estimate the Multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze short- and long-term spatial price adjustments across warehouses. Of the eight warehouses, six showed significant spatial integration. The VECM results showed effective price transmission and strong short- and longterm market relationships. Short-term dynamics particularly revealed complex interactions. These findings highlight the varying impacts of price fluctuations between warehouses and the need to understand these interactions for better strategic decision making, resource allocation, and pricing strategy refinement. Furthermore, accelerating the speed of price pass through is vital to improve the livelihoods of sesame farmers in Ethiopia.

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.org.

Supporting Sudan’s entrepreneurs in crisis: Policy insights from micro, small, and medium enterprises

The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s economy and important to the food security of many Sudanese households. All MSMEs, including those in the agrifood sector, have faced severe disruptions due to the instability, rising inflation, and supply chain breakdowns brought on by the conflict. These challenges have destabilized MSMEs, affecting their financial viability, operations, and capacity to support local food security and provide employment. Agrifood MSMEs, in particular, serve as critical intermediaries between large firms and smallholders, supporting local economies and national food systems.2 The conflict has disrupted every aspect of agrifood value chains in Sudan, from input supplies and production to market accessibility. Agrifood entrepreneurs—especially women—have borne some of the heaviest impacts. Female entrepreneurs already face significant gender-based barriers in operating successful businesses, such as more limited access to finance, restrictive social norms, and mobility constraints. In this period of conflict, they now confront even greater
challenges.

Evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the ongoing conflict

Sudan's food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS),1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey,2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey,3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began.

The socioeconomic impact of armed conflict on Sudanese urban households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey

Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today.

"The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households" study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

A nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy for food systems transformation in Africa

Africa’s commitment to creating a sustainable and self-sufficient economy for its rapidly growing population has led to programmatic actions aimed at meeting local food, energy, and material demands sustainably and without compromising planetary boundaries (Africa Business Page 2022; Agri SA 2023). The bioeconomy has become a primary focus of this transformative blueprint, generally positioned as a vehicle for generating and using bioresources in meeting local demands for abundance, sustainable goods, and services (Gatune, Ozor, and Oriama 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). However, the implementation momentum of the bioeconomy is incumbent on a well-planned and objective-oriented policy framework that supports generation of scientific evidence and reasonable investment structures, among other requirements for implementation (East African Community 2022; Pachón et al. 2018).

Climate risks and vulnerabilities in African agrifood systems

In an era when the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly pronounced, understanding and mitigating climate risk is paramount, especially for regions highly vulnerable to environmental change. Africa, with its rich biodiversity and varied climates, stands on the front line, facing unique challenges posed by climate change and climate variability. The continent’s susceptibility around climate change is not just a matter of environmental concern but a multifaceted issue affecting socioeconomic development, agricultural sustainability, and the overall well-being of its inhabitants. The imperative to assess, comprehend, and adapt to these risks is more critical now than ever, necessitating a detailed analysis of various climate-related parameters and their long-term implications.

Adaptation actions to climate change in African agriculture: Effectiveness and challenges

Climate change poses a significant burden to African development and economic growth, impacting households at both national and regional levels. While accounting for only 3–4 percent of global emissions, Africa is most vulnerable to climate change due to low levels of socioeconomic growth (Kikstra et al. 2022). Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, environmental degradation, inadequate infrastructure, widespread poverty, and increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. These factors make Africa highly susceptible to climate-related disruptions such as droughts and floods and can amplify the impact of climate-related disasters on communities, economies, and ecosystems (UNECA 2013; WMO 2020). Effective adaptation strategies and risk financing mechanisms are crucial for building regional adaptive capacity and resilience.

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes [In the 2024 ATOR]

In this chapter we review Africa’s progress in CAADP process implementation and on the CAADP RF indicators to highlight areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. The chapter examines progress on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 13.2). Details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress on the RF indicators is discussed across different aggregated geographic and economic groupings of African countries by comparing trends in the RF indicators during the first five years after the adoption of CAADP (2003–2008) with later subperiods (2008–2014 and 2014–2023), with a particular focus on the Malabo Declaration period of 2014–2023.

The impact of climate change on African economies and opportunities for agrifood system transformation

As in the rest of the world, the climate is changing in Africa, with data showing a slightly faster warming trend than the global average of around +0.2°C per decade for the 1991–2022 period. In Africa, the average rate of change of temperature was around +0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2022, while it was estimated at +0.2°C per decade between 1961 and 1990. In addition, all six African subregions have experienced an increase in warming over the past 60 years compared with the period before 1960. Due to global warming, Africa is observing a change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones (WMO 2023). For instance, the report on the State of the Climate in Africa in 2022 (WMO 2023) showed that precipitation anomalies were above the 1991–2020 average in northeastern Africa, large parts of West Africa, the eastern Sahel region, Sudan, and parts of South Africa. In addition, several regions experienced rainfall deficits including the western part of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of southern Africa, and Madagascar. Sea level rise in Africa’s seven coastal regions has been similar to the global sea level average rate of increase of 3.4 millimeters (plus or minus 0.3 millimeters) per year between 1990 and 2020. In addition, extreme weather events are growing in frequency and intensity. With respect to extreme weather events including droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones, data from the Emergency Event Database in Africa showed that 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards were reported in 2022 (WMO 2023).

Toward integrated dam assessment: Evaluating multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile is expected to influence many ecosystem services, such as flood regulation, hydro-electricity production, food supply, and habitat provision, among others. Understanding these impacts (positive and negative) requires a comprehensive evaluation framework. This study develops and applies an integrated simulation framework for assessing the impacts of the GERD on Sudan, focusing on the simultaneous economywide effects of riverine flood hazards, irrigation water supply, hydropower generation, and floodplain-dependent industries, namely traditional fired clay brick production. The simulation framework incorporates three models: a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results indicate positive impacts for hydropower generation and flood control, marginal benefits for water supply to existing irrigation, and negative consequences for brick production and the construction sector. Assuming that the GERD starts its long-term operation in 2025, we find an overall positive economic impact on Sudan's Gross Domestic Product in 2025, with an increase of up to just over 0.1%, subject to river flow conditions. Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects. While the study captures several impacts, other effects on the environment, recession agriculture, and soil fertility require further investigation. Still, our findings underscore the importance of adopting an integrated simulation approach to dam evaluation, acknowledging the interconnected nature of water and related sectors in national economies.

2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Sudan: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2021 Sudan Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI's Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI's website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.

Impact of climate change on trade in Africa

The literature on the complex relationship between trade and climate change is rich. While trade can affect climate change through dirty production techniques or carbon emissions due to transport (Brenton and Chemutai 2021), climate change can affect trade through its effect on agricultural productivity (Ben Zaied and Cheikh 2015; Chandio et al. 2020), production, and thus countries’ specialization (Gouel and Laborde 2021), primarily due to high temperatures and water stress (Hamududu and Ngoma 2020). As Africa is a net importer of agricultural products, the consequence is that climate change will likely affect food security in the medium and long term. Against this background, the objective of this chapter is twofold. First, we examine the extent to which African countries are exposed to climate change relative to other regions of the world. Second, we show how Africa’s comparative advantages can be altered with rising temperatures and water stress. Our main findings show that climate change effects in Africa are more pronounced than in other regions, reflected in the increase in extreme weather events associated with rising temperatures and greater variability in precipitation. These developments are likely to increase the number of food insecure people. Furthermore, we identify how climate change can affect African countries’ specialization based on products’ sensitivity to changes in temperature and their dependence on water. We show that several crops (such as leguminous vegetables, edible nuts and coconuts, groundnuts, oilseeds, and oleaginous fruits) will be affected by climate change. Other crops’ production may be less affected, but their future expansion may be limited by climate change–related factors.

Geopolitical changes and their implications for agricultural trade negotiations

The dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in the 1990s marked a significant geopolitical shift, resulting in the clear and undisputed preeminence of the United States (USA) in global affairs. This new dominance was bolstered by the support of its closest allies, primarily the European Union (EU), Japan, Australia, and a few others.

In the wake of this geopolitical shift, a new phase of global economic interdependence emerged characterized by a growing reliance on trade and the development of global value chains, which connected production processes across multiple countries. This collaborative approach to production rapidly accelerated at the beginning of the 21st century and played a crucial role in the rapid economic development of countries like China and the Republic of Korea.

Navigating the trade landscape: A Latin American perspective building on the WTO 13th ministerial conference

This publication-a joint effort by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA)-is being released in the context of growing changes and fragmentation in global economic and trade relationships. Countries are increasingly adopting protectionist measures in response to recent crises and the decreased competitiveness of value chains, due to rising production, marketing and transportation costs. The complex multilateral trade system and the urgent need to implement concrete actions in this area are prompting countries to work towards the adoption of new standards that aim to protect and preserve the environment but could also become barriers to trade that impose a significant economic and social cost on other countries. The countries of the Americas must continue to support efforts to strengthen the multilateral trade system, ensuring that it is open, transparent and science-based, as well as to effectively participate in discussion forums such as the ministerial conferences of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Amidst this scenario, international trade plays a vital role in transforming food systems, by interconnecting them and contributing to creating a more sustainable global food system. In recent years, the growth of production and exports has converted Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) into the largest net food exporting region in the world. On average, agrifood exports from the region in 2021-2023 accounted for 17% of global agrifood exports, representing one fourth of total exports from the region. During that period, LAC agrifood exports grew by 7.6%. Yet, it bears mentioning that, despite its important role, the region has its share of challenges. During 2023, 85% of LAC agrifood exports were directed at external markets and 53% of the value of exported agrifood exports was concentrated among only 10 products. This demonstrates the region’s significant vulnerability and is undoubtedly a challenge that must be addressed. This document is an inter-institutional effort to share ideas and reflections on the main issues to be tackled building on the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference. We hope that it will serve as input in strengthening the participation of the countries of the Americas in WTO multilateral negotiations, while also highlighting the key role of agricultural trade in agrifood system transformation.

Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities

Livestock in Sudan plays a crucial role in the national economy, particularly in alleviating poverty and enhancing food security. Despite its significance, the last comprehensive livestock census for the country was conducted in 1975, resulting in now outdated and often unreliable data. Recent estimates by USAID indicate that Sudan ranks among the top three African countries in terms of livestock numbers, with an estimated 105.6 million animals. The livestock population in Sudan is predominantly composed of camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. The spatial distribution of livestock is variable and influenced by local factors such as feed resources, land use, and ecological conditions. The Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur regions have the largest livestock numbers. However, discrepancies between official statistics and field data show the need for updated and accurate livestock data. The livestock sector provides 40 percent of employment and 34 percent of Sudan’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The livestock sector is a vital source of foreign exchange for the Sudanese economy through exports of livestock and livestock products. Besides its economic contributions, the livestock sector provides essential food products, including meat, eggs, and milk, and draught power for agricultural operations and transportation, particularly in rural areas. However, relative to irrigated agriculture, the sector faces challenges due to underinvestment and minimal government attention.

What role does conflict play in fertilizer use and maize yield response in Nigeria?

While increased use of inorganic fertilizer has been recommended to achieve increased maize productivity, studies on the effects of violent conflicts have also demonstrated the possible moderating influence of conflict on agricultural input use. However, the various pathways and extent through which affects fertilizer use and maize yield response to fertilizer use remain poorly understood. In this study, we used the ACLED geocoded longitudinal dataset based on the Nigeria LSMS-ISA panel survey to assess the impact of violent conflicts on fertilizer use and maize yield response in Nigeria. Understanding this effect of conflict on fertilizer use and maize yield response could be relevant to better understand smallholders resource use decisions in the context of other countries experiencing similar violent and serves as building block for understanding how factors outside the control of agronomic field experiments affect economic incentives for fertilizer use and yield of smallholder farmers.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

We need to know the economic impacts of Sudan’s ongoing conflict

Food security and social assistance in Sudan during armed conflict: Evidence from the first round of the Sudan Rural Household Survey (November 2023–January 2024)

The conflict in Sudan has severely impacted the food security landscape in rural areas, with profound implications for household diets, coping strategies, and overall food insecurity levels. Data from a national rural household phone survey conducted between October 2023 and January 2024 highlights the dire food consumption patterns, the prevalence of food insecurity, and the reliance on reduced coping strategies among the rural population of Sudan. As of the end of 2023, nearly 40 percent of rural households were consuming inadequate diets, with West Kordofan, South Kordofan, North Darfur, East Darfur, and Sennar states experiencing the highest prevalence of poor food consumption (34, 33, 29 and 24 percent, respectively). The primary components of diets were cereals and oils, with nutrient-rich foods, such as meats and fruits, consumed less frequently, highlighting a critical gap in nutritional adequacy. The situation has resulted in households across Sudan resorting to a range of coping strategies to try to meet their food needs, such as buying less preferred or less expensive food (on average 4 days out of 7), limiting portion sizes, or reducing the number of daily meals. The five coping mechanisms that were examined in the analysis were found to be implemented with approximately similar frequencies across rural Sudan. However, the situation was particularly dire in West Darfur, South Kordofan, and Khartoum, the states recording the highest prevalence of consumption of inadequate diets and the highest reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) scores.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline process evaluation report

This process evaluation (PE) is part of a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) of the use of a new pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria, a project led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). While the IE draws from a representative sample of 1,399 farmers to determine the causal impacts of the use of PBR cowpea, the PE complements the IE by exploring in detail the potential adoption of the PBR cowpea variety and the reasons for adoption or non adoption, including its potential impacts on actors throughout the value chain. A program impact pathway (PIP) is the basis of this PE. The PIP identifies how impacts emerge from program inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes to highlight barriers and facilitators of adoption. Given that this PE was conducted before the rollout of PBR cowpea in the IE, the analysis focuses on the potential of this innovative seed to achieve positive outputs and outcomes based on the PIP. Qualitative data were gathered from eight focus group discussions with farmers and 180 semi-structured interviews conducted with farmers, extension agents, seed dealers, and cowpea traders from eight local government areas (LGAs) in the states of Adamawa and Kwara. Given that the data are qualitative, the data are not representative. However, important insights were found that can help guide the IE.

IFPRI's country programs: Facilitating country-led food systems transformation

In most low- and middle-income countries, agrifood systems constitute a sizable share of economic activity and serve as a primary source of livelihoods, especially for poorer members of the population. As a result, national development strategies frequently put strong emphasis on the agrifood sector to achieve key goals, such as accelerating economic growth, reducing poverty, improving food and nutrition security, and confronting climate change. This emphasis was confirmed at the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit, where more than 100 countries committed to transforming their food systems to make them more productive, nutrition-focused, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable, and it was further reinforced by the Food and Agriculture Declaration at COP28. To achieve these desired transformations, governments require data and research based evidence to assess the situation, identify solutions, and prioritize actions. Governments are also increasingly interested in enhancing institutional capacity to support country-led development pathways.

Regional developments [in 2024 Global Food Policy Report]

The regional section of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report examines the evolving problem of malnutrition—including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity—in low- and middle-income countries across the world’s major regions. Policy interventions are highlighted that address the particular challenges and opportunities in each region, with recommendations that aim to transform food systems to make healthier, more diverse, and more sustainable diets available, affordable, accessible, and desirable for everyone, including the most vulnerable.

Africa:
Diverse diet and nutrition conditions in Africa call for targeted strategies to increase the supply, affordability, and consumption of healthy foods, especially for the most vulnerable. Addressing the high burden of micronutrient deficiencies and undernutrition in the region will require lever¬aging local, national, regional, and continental food systems to increase the supply and reduce the cost of nutritious foods. This regional section discusses the importance of contextualizing evidence-based multisectoral policy and program approaches, and strengthening people’s resilience and capacity to cope with global threats posed by climate change, conflicts, and other shocks to support a shift to sustainable healthy diets.

Middle East and North Africa:
To achieve sustainable healthy diets in the Middle East and North Africa, multifaceted policy approaches are needed to boost the resilience of food systems to frequent shocks, which raise food prices and affect diet quality. National policy responses need to consider the region’s double burden of malnutrition along with other vulnerabilities, including climate change, water scarcity, and conflict, as well as more effective targeting of social protection for the most vulnerable groups, and reform of food subsidies to improve diets.

Central Asia:
Food systems in Central Asia face serious challenges related to diet quality and nutrition. Obstacles include the high cost of a healthy diet, inadequate nutrition knowledge, unhealthy consumption habits, and domestic and regional policies. This regional section discusses the additional impact of climate change, unstable commodity markets, and a heavy reliance on remittances and undiversified trade flows, and highlights several policy interventions that have potential to transform Central Asian food systems.

South Asia:
In South Asia, where levels of malnutrition are high and rates of diet-related noncommunicable diseases are rising, a shift toward healthier, more sustainable diets will require allocating more resources to promote production and consumption of non-staple foods. This regional section explores “crop-neutral” policies that would allow farmers to respond to market sig¬nals and contribute to diversification in domestic food production that could also reduce poverty. Taxes on foods high in fat, sugar, and salt could help slow the rapid increase in consumption of these foods, and effective front-of-package labeling can promote healthy food choices.

East and Southeast Asia:
Major challenges to achieving sustainable healthy diets in East and Southeast Asia include poor food standards, lack of consideration of diets and health in trade policies, and changing food demand. This regional section highlights multi-duty policy actions that are needed to address the double burden of malnutrition and its drivers, including rapid urbanization, income growth, and environmental changes. Policy reforms must consider the needs and preferences of diverse populations in the region, support the agency of the most marginalized producers and consumers, and strengthen regional cooperation to make diverse, healthy food available and accessible for all.

Latin America and the Caribbean:
To achieve sustainable healthy diets, the Latin America and Caribbean region will require both demand- and supply-side solutions, as well as changes in food environments to increase demand for healthy foods. This regional section discusses the complex challenge of identifying the most effective policies and standards to tackle malnutrition and obstacles to accessing and affording healthy diets. It highlights the importance of clearly defining objectives, strengthening social protection programs, addressing the driv¬ers of obesity and overweight, and increasing the availability and affordability of nutritious foods, while maintaining and expanding the region’s crucial role in global food security and nutrition.

Review of global agricultural emission databases

Since the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) has consistently risen, leading to a 1.15°C increase in global mean temperatures by 2022. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms human activities as the primary cause of global warming, with emissions continuing to rise. Climate change has resulted in adverse impacts on various fronts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. International efforts, including the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, aimed at stabilizing green-house gas concentrations. These efforts were followed by the Paris Agreement in 2015, focusing on limiting global temperature increases and relying on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) from countries.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates Countries to develop and regularly update national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. These inventories, aligned with IPCC methodologies, serve as crucial tools for transparent reporting, building mutual trust among countries for effective climate change agreements. National GHG inventories play a vital role in policy development, monitoring impact, and tracking progress toward achieving NDCs outlined in inter-national agreements, such as the Paris Agreement.

Varying capacities for GHG inventory development among developing and developed countries, coupled with diverse reporting requirements, create challenges in data comparability. Developed countries face rigorous annual submission requirements, producing comprehensive National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Format tables. In contrast, developing countries submit their national GHG inventories through Biennial Update Reports (BURs), and flexibility is granted to Least Developed Country Parties (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) regarding submission timelines. The re-porting landscape is progressing, with the introduction of the biennial transparency report (BTR) for Paris Agreement Parties. The BTR, due by December 31, 2024, will convergence in methodologies be-tween countries.

The enabling environment for large-scale food fortification in Madagascar

Why is there high variability—both across countries and across different food staples—in the adoption and implementation of large-scale food fortification (LSFF)? A systematic diagnostic of the enabling environment for LSFF can identify key bottlenecks and help to calibrate policy interventions appropriately. This paper delineates the components of such a tool by focusing on two core elements of the enabling environment—political will and implementation capacity—and applies the framework to Madagascar. With more than 75 percent of its population living below the poverty line and almost 40 percent of children under five who are stunted, Madagascar faces major hurdles to addressing malnutrition, including weak consumer purchasing power, recurrent political crises, and frequent climate shocks that undermine agricultural productivity. LSFF has been identified in several national nutrition plans as an option for addressing malnutrition. Yet, thus far, only salt has been fortified at a national scale.

Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 31 knowledgeable stakeholders in Madagascar in the areas of mandatory fortification of salt, voluntary targeted fortification of infant flour, and fortification of foods for humanitarian assistance, the framework reveals several key priorities. First, weak governance overall affects several dimensions of nutrition and fortification policy, including policy momentum, commitment, and communication. Nutrition interventions therefore need to be calibrated to the country’s broader political risks, incentive structures, and capacities of relevant civil servants. To this end, fortification advocates should go beyond drawing on the expertise of nutrition professionals alone and also engage public sector governance experts as partners in fortification efforts. Second, major priorities for investment include a large-scale micronutrient and consumption survey to update information on micronutrient deficiencies and identify viable food vehicles for mass fortification. Third, an accredited laboratory to test micronutrients is sorely needed in the country to help reduce costs faced by companies who currently send their products overseas for testing and who face competition from counterfeit products. Fourth, financial and technical partners must pursue a multi-pronged lobby approach to overcome high government taxes on imported premix. Fifth, the National Food Fortification Alliance, which serves as a multi-stakeholder platform, requires a sustainable financing model to attract committed leadership and ensure consistent coordination activities. These and other lessons hold policy relevance for other low-income and fragile settings where LSFF is being considered as an option to address micronutrient deficiencies.

2023 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2023 Annual Report offers highlights from our research around the world and of our analysis and communications on addressing global challenges that contribute to hunger and malnutrition. In 2023, IFPRI continued the critical work on crisis and resilience-building that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising food prices. Our research also continued to inform policymakers and stakeholders on climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, all with attention to gender and the world’s most vulnerable people, with the goals of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition.

Sudan Rural Household Survey 2023: Sampling and implementation procedures for the first round

This paper describes the data collection methodology for the 2023 Sudan Rural Household Survey (SRHS), the first nationwide survey of rural households in Sudan following the eruption of violent conflict in April 2023. The SRHS, which was conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Development Program and the World Food Program, represents a significant effort to understand the dynamics of rural households in Sudan during a period of profound national conflict. The survey focuses on several critical themes central to household welfare, including food security, coping strategies, employment and income, livelihoods, assets, market access, and exposure to shocks. Analysis of the survey data can provide comprehensive insights into the resilience of and challenges faced by rural communities in Sudan. Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) methods were used to navigate the challenges of data collection in a conflict setting. The use of CATI demonstrated the adaptability and potential of innovative research methodologies in conflict-affected regions. The survey, the first round in a planned panel survey program, aims to establish a baseline of rural life, economic activities, and food security in Sudan. Panel survey data offers invaluable information to counter several analytical biases inherent to the conclusions drawn from other data structures. Subsequent rounds of the SRHS are planned for the second and fourth quarters of 2024.

Livelihoods in Sudan amid armed conflict: Evidence from a national rural household survey

Analysis of a comprehensive survey of Sudanese rural households conducted from November 2023 to January 2024 by IFPRI and UNDP reveals significant socioeconomic impacts of the ongoing armed conflict on the Sudanese population, underscoring the need for immediate and targeted policy and programmatic interventions. The conflict has severely disrupted rural household incomes and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities related to their housing and access to infrastructure and services. Most households live in inadequate housing conditions, with disparities in access to water, electricity, and sanitation services posing additional challenges. Rural households’ low access to assets, including agricultural land, further complicates their livelihoods.

The conflict, primarily concentrated in urban areas, particularly Khartoum, has triggered mass migration, with significant numbers relocating to states like Aj Jazirah and Gedaref. These migrants, often from relatively better-off backgrounds, face substantial income losses, necessitating basic needs support and enhanced provision of public services, particularly for the large families that are more likely to migrate.

Agriculture, a critical sector for rural livelihoods, has been significantly affected across all states. Most households reported not cultivating land during the summer season of 2023 due to the conflict. The sharp reduction in the area of crops planted underscores the need for support for farming activities, particularly for smallholder households.

The survey highlights extensive exposure to shocks among rural households, with personal shocks, such as illnesses among household members, being the most common. Natural and climatic shocks, although less prevalent, alongside conflict-related shocks, like theft and violence, emphasize the complex challenges faced by these communities.

Market access and disruptions have further impacted rural households, with a considerable proportion of rural households unable to sell or buy goods, primarily due to high prices and sharp reductions in income for most households. These market challenges, coupled with the overall economic instability, necessitate interventions aimed at maintaining and improving market accessibility and functionality to promote recovery and resilience.

The findings from the analysis of the survey data lend support to designing and implementing comprehensive strategies that address the immediate needs of displaced populations and other rural households affected by income losses and market disruptions. Enhancing public services, supporting livelihoods, building resilience through shock-responsive social protection systems, agricultural and economic interventions, and ensuring equitable access to resources and markets for all households, particularly those headed by women and vulnerable groups, are the principal policy recommendations that emerged from this analysis.

This study of rural household livelihoods amid the armed conflict in Sudan provides a foundation for targeted interventions and policy reforms aimed at mitigating the conflict’s impacts and fostering long-term resilience and economic stability.

Navigating Sudan's conflict: Research insights and policy implications: Proceedings of a conference

This report synthesizes the key discussions and outcomes of the “Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications” conference, held on March 5, 2024, in Nairobi, Kenya. Convening a diverse group of experts in research, development, and humanitarian efforts, the conference aimed to explore actionable solutions for the socioeconomic challenges triggered by Sudan’s ongoing conflict. Participants at the conference delved into the conflict’s adverse impacts on agriculture, markets, employment, and food security, as well as its wider regional impacts. Notably, the conference findings underscore the urgent need for supporting smallholder farmers, stabilizing markets, generating employment opportunities, and enhancing agricultural productivity within a comprehensive recovery strategy. Furthermore, conference participants stressed the importance of innovative data gathering, collaborative policy formulation, international support, and coordination to ensure effective interventions. This report succinctly presents the interventions discussed in the conference’s research and panel discussion sessions, particularly the pivotal insights offered in each to guide policy that will build peace, strengthen resilience, and relaunch and accelerate human and economic development efforts in Sudan.

Conflict and food security in Sudan: Policy insights and recommendations

The conflict in Sudan erupted on April 15, 2023. Originating from competition over resources and political power, it emerged as direct warfare between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. It has escalated into a crisis with profound impacts on the nation’s socio-economic fabric. More specifically, the conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, disrupted agrifood systems across the country, restricted economic activity, and curtailed the livelihoods of millions. The conflict continues to impede access to essential services and markets, resulting in significant scarcity of life-saving goods and services. As of March 2024, 14,790 Sudanese have been killed (Figure 1), and 8.4 million have been displaced, of which1.7 million have sought refuge in other countries.

Assessing the vulnerability of national food security to international food price shocks: A new index

Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available.

The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience.

The economic importance of cowpea in Nigeria trends and Implications for achieving agri-food system transformation

Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world and one of the highest consumers. This paper documents the challenges in cowpea production and consumption, export, and import trends in Nigeria. The critical and comparative review reveals several important insights. Cowpea is important for households and communities due to its substantial contributions to food security, nutrition, and revenue production. It plays a pivotal role in supporting various stakeholders involved in the value chain, including producers, processors, traders, and food vendors. Thus, cowpea is a crucial multipurpose crop. Although Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world, with a total production of 3.6 million tons in 2021, the demand for cowpea surpasses its supply due to factors such as the country's large population and low productivity. We describe the main challenges encountered in Nigeria's cowpea production, encompassing a range of issues such as high susceptibility to pests and diseases from planting to storage phases, low adoption of improved cowpea seed varieties, poor soil fertility, drought, and heat stress. The data suggest that low input use, low-yield varieties, and low productivity characterize the current level of cowpea production. Our findings suggest the need for tailored strategies to support the adoption of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria to increase domestic production, adherence to quality standards, exploration of international markets for export opportunities, and ultimately, household income and improve nutritional outcomes.

Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises

A convergence of several risk drivers creates the compound crises we see across the globe today. At the same time, the global humanitarian community and national institutions in affected countries are increasingly resource constrained. In this context, existing financing mechanisms should be evaluated for their potential to create synergies between social protection, peace, and inclusion objectives on the one hand and climate resilience outcomes on the other. The existing international architecture of climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and financing holds, in principle, the potential to address not only its main purpose of climate action, but also to contribute to development outcomes and address multiple risk drivers. Examples of this exist, but for these mutual benefits to emerge, and for climate finance to contribute more significantly to crises prevention, the agendas must become more aligned. Aligning several factors may enable coherence: i) Timeframes, from short-term response to multi-year programming; ii) Planning and targeting, moving towards conflict-sensitive area-based approaches and universal access to services; iii) Institutional arrangements and partnerships, coordinated national planning and jointly implemented local action.

From promises to action: Analyzing global commitments on food security and diets since 2015

Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2), Zero Hunger, by 2030 is in jeopardy due to slowing and unequal economic growth, climate shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, conflict, lackluster efforts toward investing in food system sustainability and agricultural productivity growth, and persistent barriers to open food trade. Nevertheless, numerous commitments to achieving SDG 2 have been repeatedly expressed by Heads of State and Ministers at diverse global meetings since the SDGs became a focus in 2015. To identify the intensity and degree of convergence of commitments that national governments have collectively made to realizing SDG 2, this paper provides a qualitative assessment of statements from more than 68 global meetings and 107 intergovernmental commitment documents since 2015. Analyzing these commitments against seven critical factors necessary for impact at scale, we find that stated intentions to solve the global food security and hunger challenge have become more pronounced at global meetings over time, especially in the wake of the crises. However, the intent to act is not consistently matched by commitments to specific actions that could help accelerate reductions in hunger. For instance, while increased financing is often recognized as a priority to reach SDG 2, few commitments in global fora relate to detailed costing of required investments. Similarly, many commitment statements lack specificity regarding what and how policy interventions should be scaled up for greater action on SDG 2 or the ways to enhance different stakeholders’ capacities to implement them. While horizontal coherence was mentioned across most global fora, it was only present in about half of the commitment statements, with even less recognition of the necessity for vertical coherence from global to local levels. Despite global acknowledgement of the importance of accountability and monitoring, usually by way of progress reports, we find few consequences for governments that do not act on commitments made in global fora. We discuss the implications of these findings and offer recommendations for how to strengthen the commitment-making process to help accelerate actions that can reduce food insecurity and hunger and augment the legitimacy of global meetings. This work can inform the policy advocacy community focused on SDG 2 and those engaged in catalyzing and supporting intergovernmental action on other SDGs. Our findings reiterate the importance of attention to global governance and the political economy of global meetings—which is necessary to strengthen our focus on delivering outcomes that put the world on a path that brings the solution to the problems of global hunger and food insecurity within reach.

Double-booked: Effects of overlap between school and farming calendars on education and child labor

Overlap between school and farming calendars—pervasive in agrarian settings—constrains children’s time for both activities, potentially forcing trade-offs between schooling and child labor. Using shift-share estimation, I study an exogenous shift to overlap between school and crop calendars in Malawi, weighted and aggregated by communities’ pre-policy crop shares, matched to panel data on school-aged children. From pre- to post-policy, a five-day (i.e., one school-week) increase in overlap during peak farming periods decreases children’s school advancement by 0.14 grades—one lost grade for every seven children—while only resulting in 3.9 percent fewer children working on the household-farm. Policy simulations show how adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods can be an effective strategy to increase school participation.

Opportunities for innovation and intervention in Uganda’s dairy value chain: A scoping report

This report is generated as part of a scoping study to identify possible areas that should be prioritized for intervention to improve performance and sustainability of the dairy industry in Uganda. The evaluation relies on primary and secondary data collected by IFPRI and DDA in 2021. Ten primary datasets are used for the results informing the several interventions and secondary data relies on literature review and Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) dataset. The results underline five issues namely low productivity, low milk quality, and constrained markets. Low productivity is associated with production systems that undermine pasture improvement, disease control and animal health, yet these are primary drivers of milk output notwithstanding breed and effects of climate shocks. Secondly, milk production practices are directly linked to milk quality and low milk quality has negative chain effect on productivity/performance of all actors in the dairy value chain with consequence of low competitiveness of Uganda’s dairy products. The evidence suggests that there is need to explore new approaches to improve productivity and innovations in design of interventions in a holistic value chain approach to improve market performance. To improve production, innovations in livestock management and animal health coupled with milk volume (MV) based rewards are proposed. To improve milk quality, the establishment of qualitybased incentives are proposed.

Impact of the ongoing conflict on smallholder farmers in Sudan: Evidence from a nationwide survey

This study addresses the impact of the ongoing conflict in Sudan on smallholder farmers' intentions and challenges during the 2023 summer agricultural season. A nationally representative survey of 3,284 smallholder farmers was conducted. Due to the security hazards and connectivity challenges, we used a combination of three interview types, Interactive Voice Recording (IVR), Computer-Assisted-Tele phone-Interviews (CATI) and face-to-face (in-person) interviews. Key findings are that close to a third of the farmers were displaced from their farms’ locations and 40 percent were unable to prepare for plant ing season because of the conflict. Most of the farmers who did not prepare for the summer season at the time of the interview were not intending to plant later in the season. The key challenges that pre vented them from planting were the lack of finance to buy agricultural inputs (such as seeds and fertiliz ers) and/or to hire farm labor. This is compounded by bad weather conditions, poor quality of the local seed varieties, higher cost of improved seeds, and delayed rains (climate challenges). In addition, the ongoing conflict has had direct and indirect impacts that prevented many farmers from planting this season. It disrupted market functionality and reduced the availability of and/or raised the cost of agricul tural inputs and farm labor. The lack of finances has also seen farmers reduce the size of the area they planted this season compared to last year’s season. The compounding challenges of these reduced production are expected to be felt as soon as the harvest season begins. The implications suggest the need for rapid intervention to support farmers during the harvest and winter seasons to mitigate the im pact of the conflict on agricultural activities.

Integrated simulation framework for the impacts of large dams: Example of the GERD

Efficient water resources management is essential for the sustainable development of nations, and large dams are an important tool for achieving this endeavor. Here, we present an integrated approach to simulating the impacts of large dams, integrating river systems infrastructure, hydrodynamic, and economywide models. We apply the framework to examine the biophysical, GDP, and distributional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan.

Modeling the economywide effects of water and energy interventions in the face of climate change

The Ethiopian economy relies predominantly on rainfed agriculture for income generation, export earnings, and rural livelihoods. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme ago-climatic events projected by climate scenarios suggest considerable and growing risks from climate change to the country’s agri-food systems and the overall economy. This study assesses the economic impacts of recurrent climate shocks on the Ethiopian economy to 2040. The results indicate that recurrent climate shocks will lead to a reduction in Ethiopia's cumulative GDP from 2020 to 2040 compared to a “no climate change” baseline. Specifically, extreme weather events could cumulatively cost Ethiopia up to 17 percent (or US$ 534.3 billion) in GDP between 2020 and 2040 compared to a no-climate change baseline. The weight of the economic loss is concentrated in the agricultural production sector, with rural households and poorer households in urban areas being worst affected. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure and in hydroelectricity generation are found to be effective in mitigating some of the damage caused by recurrent climate variability.

Agricultural inputs in Kenya: Demand, supply, and the policy environment

Agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, seeds, breeding stock, crop protection chemicals, machinery, irrigation, and knowledge, are key to innovation and productivity improvement, and are the backbone of any agricultural revolution. They are an integral part of the food supply chain, which comprises the production and distribution of food, and as such a key component of the food system (HLPE 2017). The food supply chain involves various actors at different stages of the chain but this chapter focuses only on agricultural inputs, including both farm inputs and agricultural advisory services.

An enabling environment for the national flour blending policy: A food systems analysis

A national flour blending policy is about to be implemented in Kenya. This requires maize flour (the country’s main staple) to be blended with at least 10 percent of either one or a composite of traditional crops, such as sorghum and millet.1 The blending ratio is expected to increase gradually, with the goal of ultimately reaching 30 percent. The policy envisages achieving several goals. The first is to improve the nutritional quality of maize flour: sorghum and millet (and other candidate blending crops) have micronutrient characteristics that are absent in maize. The second is to promote more climate-tolerant crops and technologies: sorghum and millet can be grown in less favorable arid and semiarid lands (ASALs), in the very conditions that many farmers face in Kenya. This is particularly important given that maize is more susceptible than other staple crops to climate change. The third is to reduce the country’s overreliance on imported maize and concerns about its food sovereignty.

This file includes the introduction to Part Six.

Investing in science, technology, and innovation for sustainable, productivity-led agricultural growth

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes [In the 2023 ATOR]

2023 marks two decades since the 2003 launch of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), a continentwide framework for agriculture-led development. The implementation of CAADP has coincided with a period of strong agricultural and economic growth across Africa. CAADP has been credited with galvanizing increased recognition by the international community of the key role agriculture plays in broader economic development on the continent (Benin et al. 2018). After the first decade of implementation, the CAADP agenda was deepened through the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods (AUC 2014). Through the Malabo Declaration, African leaders recommitted to the principles and values of CAADP, including evidence-based planning, dialogue, and review, and reaffirmed the original CAADP targets of achieving 6 percent annual agricultural growth and 10 percent of public expenditures being directed to agriculture. The 2014 Declaration further expanded the CAADP commitments to include sharply reducing hunger and poverty, expanding intra-continental trade, building resilience to the adverse effects of climate change, and strengthening mutual accountability for CAADP-focused actions and results to advance agricultural transformation in Africa. The CAADP Biennial Review was designated as the operational tool to monitor the progress of African countries toward achieving these commitments.

Committing to transform food systems: Responsiveness of food systems transformation pledges by African governments to the WHO priority food systems policies and food-related CAADP biennial review performance categories

For several decades, Africa’s food security situation has been dire. However, that dire state has recently been complicated by rising rates of overweight and obesity and other diet-related noncommunicable diseases. By 2030, noncommunicable diseases are predicted to become the leading cause of death on the continent amid other pandemic and economic challenges. Several interventions have been deployed to address the emerging challenges. African heads of state and government have been committing, declaring, pledging, and developing national and regional nutrition strategies, and they have envisioned the Africa they would want by 2063—the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Other actions include commitments made as part of the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit. With less than a decade to go to meet the 2030 agenda for transforming food systems in a sustainable way, we must ask whether these new commitments and recommitments can fulfill that promise. In this chapter, we assess the responsiveness of some African nations’ commitments to (1) the World Health Organization’s food priority policy actions, and (2) select Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme Biennial Review performance categories. Both actions are touted as game changers—actions that have the potential to pave the way for the needed changes in Africa’s food systems.

Do ultra-poor graduation programs build resilience against droughts? Evidence from rural Ethiopia

We study the role of a multifaceted ultra-poor graduation program in protecting household wellbeing and women’s welfare from the effects of localized droughts in Ethiopia. We use data from a large experimental trial of an integrated livelihood and nutrition intervention that supplemented the consumption support provided by Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), conducted within a sample in which all households were beneficiaries of the PSNP. We match three rounds of household survey data to detailed satellite weather data to identify community-level exposure to droughts. We then exploit random assignment to the graduation program to evaluate whether exposed households show heterogeneous effects of drought on household food security and livestock holdings, women’s diets and nutritional status, and prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV). We find that droughts have substantial negative effects on these outcomes, but the intervention serves to consistently moderate these effects, and for some outcomes (particularly diets and nutrition and IPV), the intervention fully protects households from any adverse drought affects. A further analysis exploits variation across treatment arms that received different program elements and suggests that the primary mechanism is enhanced household savings.

Climate risks and damage abatement effects of pesticides: Evidence based on four-wave panel data in Nigeria

Managing biotic stress, such as pests, diseases, and weeds, remain critical in enhancing the productivity of agrifood systems in developing countries, including Nigeria. The public sector continues to seek solutions for efficient and effective measures for addressing these biotic stresses, ranging from varietal technologies, improved crop husbandry, and the application of agrochemicals. The field-level evidence remains scarce regarding the effectiveness of these measures in developing countries like Nigeria. Furthermore, increasing climate uncertainty poses further challenges in identifying effective measures. This study assesses the damage abatement effects of agrochemicals in Nigeria and how these effects are affected by weather shocks. We extend the standard damage abatement framework to 4 waves of farm panel data to minimize the potential bias due to the endogeneity in agrochemical use decisions. Our results indicate that weather shocks have significant effects. In particular, rising nighttime minimum temperatures above 20 ℃ have significantly increased damage abatement effects of pesticides in Nigeria. This is possibly because of increased pest activities induced by the warmer nighttime temperatures, which, in the absence of pesticide uses, would cause more significant damage to crops. These results hold for all crops combined, as well as individual crops, including cowpea and maize, for which Nigeria has intensified its effort in pest control through both agrochemicals and Bt varieties in recent years.

Innovations for inclusive and sustainable growth of domestic food value chains: Fruits and vegetables value chains in Nigeria scoping report

Fruits & vegetable value chains (F&V VC) in Nigeria hold significant potential to continue toward sustainable, inclusive food system transformation. Domestic food system growth, including that of F&V, remains crucial in achieving a healthy food environment and serving as a source of various micronutrients. There is a need for bundles of innovations to address multiple challenges along F&V VC in Nigeria, characterized by a set of challenges that are unique to developing countries and F&V.

V&F VC consists of many small actors, farmers, and traders, whereby limited vertical coordination can lead to significant efficiency loss along the value chain. Seasonal and temporal variations in supply-demand gaps for F&V commodities are substantial, and considerable scope exists for reducing losses and enhancing the overall efficiency of the domestic F&V sector. Policy environments are also favorable for such efforts, as the latest Agricultural Policy documents highlight the Nigerian government’s interest in modernizing F&V VC. Given the significant involvement of women and youths in the sector, F&V VC development has substantial potential to contribute to Nigeria's inclusive development of agrifood systems.

The current domestic F&V VC in Nigeria suffers from various sets of problems. Access to quality seeds is limited due to the significant use of recycled seeds, limited supply, and high costs of certified seeds. Cooling practices are inefficient due to insufficient access to the grid and off-grid electricity, limited knowledge of intermediate cooling methods applicable at the farm gate, and constraining quality preservations at farm gate storage, during transportation, and storage at market premises. Processing is insufficient due to the high costs of processing equipment and limited knowledge of the construction and operation of simpler, less resource-dependent processing facilities, including drying of F&V commodities. Inappropriate packing, such as the use of Rafia baskets instead of Reusable Plastic Crates, which are commonly recognized, is still prevalent, potentially due to limited market coordination. Based on the stakeholder consultations, desk reviews, validation workshops, and availability of external resources, we identified the following as critical interventions to pilot various innovation bundles. Intervention #1 provides improved varieties and quality seeds, combined with agronomy training and certification, in northern Nigeria through the collaboration with East West Seeds and Wageningen University & Research. Intervention #2 provides off-grid cooling and cool transportation, including forced-air evaporative cooling units at farm clusters and the combination of small and large refrigerated trucks for local and longer-distance transportation, through the collaboration with ColdHubs and MIT-Lab. Intervention #3 introduces improved solar dryers and provides training on appropriate, hygienic processing methods, building, and utilization of these driers (possibly combined with the introduction of a business model), through the collaboration with World Vegetable Center and Nigerian Stored Products Research Institute. Intervention #4 provides plastic crates using various rental arrangements and improves market access for farmers through collaboration with private companies, including Bunkasa. Intervention #5 supplements interventions #1, #2, and #3 and provides improved information through certification and labeling. Lastly, Intervention #6 strengthens linkages between existing solar powered cold storages to supplement other interventions.

Spatial market integration of food markets during a shock: Evidence from food markets in Nigeria

This paper uses comprehensive and long time series monthly food price data and a panel dyadic regression framework to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on spatial market integration across a diverse set of food items in Nigeria. The empirical results reveal several important insights. First, we show that a significant slowdown in the speed of adjustment and price transmission occurred during the pandemic. For some food items, the speed of adjustment and, by implication, spatial market integration weakened by two- to-threefold after the pandemic outbreak. The effect was especially pronounced for perishable food items. Second, lockdown measures and the spread of the pandemic triggered additional dispersion in market prices across markets. For example, lockdown measures were associated with a 5–10 percent reduction in the speed of readjustment toward long-term equilibrium. Third, additional underlying attributes of markets, including lack of access to digital infrastructure and distance between markets, exacerbated impacts associated with the pandemic. For instance, access to Internet service reduced the slowdown in the speed of adjustment caused by the pandemic, but longer distances between market pairs induced greater slowdown in the speed of price transmission. Our findings offer important insights for revitalizing the efficiency of food markets affected by the pandemic. The heterogenous impacts of the pandemic across value chains and markets reinforce the need to properly target post-pandemic recovery interventions and investments. Finally, we offer some insights to reduce the vulnerability of food and market systems to disruptions in future pandemics or similar phenomena that inhibit food marketing and trade.

IFPRI research and engagement: Climate change and agrifood systems

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s food systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Within food systems, climate change affects processing, storage, transport, and retailing of food and affects our food environments. These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as equity and livelihoods, with poor food producers and consumers hit hardest. They make food systems a riskier source of income and reduce the availability of food — worsening poverty and inequity, disrupting livelihoods, and contributing to hunger and malnutrition. At the same time, food systems are failing to provide healthy diets for all, and are generating one-third of human-caused greenhouse gases. Solutions must address this complex nexus of problems. Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts for food systems must be accelerated to reverse growing malnutrition, ensure that all people can access healthy diets, and provide sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, efforts to transform food systems work to reduce their environmental footprint. Farmers and small businesses along food value chains in low- and middle-income countries will have to adapt their practices to a climate marked by extreme weather events and changing seasonal patterns in order to meet growing and changing food demand, while also contributing to mitigation. Support for this critical transformation requires not only the development, dissemination, and adoption of appropriate low-emissions, climate-smart technologies and practices, but also a focus on the policies, institutions, governance, and behavior change that can promote sustainable, inclusive food systems.

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture.
The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

The political economy of reforming agricultural support policies

In both developed and developing countries, agricultural support policies provide enormous transfers of resources to agriculture—about US$817 billion per year worldwide in the 2019–2021 period (OECD 2022).¹ Some agricultural support policies, such as input subsidies, have boosted global food production, particularly of staple crops, thereby reducing hunger and poverty. Yet, there are serious concerns about their impacts on achieving sustainable, healthy, and inclusive food systems. Redirecting or “repurposing” agricultural subsidies toward investments that support both increased production and greater sustainability—such as agricultural research and development (R&D) and rural infrastructure—has the potential for win-win-win gains for people, planet, and prosperity. This chapter first considers how shifts in agricultural support would affect global efforts to promote healthy, inclusive, and sustainable food system transformation. Since such reforms are contingent on political economy considerations, the chapter subsequently presents a framework for analyzing how interests, institutions, ideas and information, and policy characteristics intersect to facilitate or stymie reform efforts. Case studies of attempted reforms from different regions are presented that highlight the relevance of the framework. The chapter concludes by summarizing some potentially enabling political economy conditions for repurposing agricultural support policies.

Political and economic drivers of Sudan's armed conflict: Implications for the agri-food system

This study assesses the political economy of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) that brought out in April 2023, resulting in massive violence, displacement, and threats to food security. Based on a series of key informant interviews and other secondary materials, this study identifies that the primary underlying driver of the conflict relates to the rise of competition between the SAF and RSF over productive resources, including within the agri-food system. This scenario has been facilitated by a longstanding lack of scrutiny, accountability, and transparency over the distribution of economic rents and commercial holdings between the two factions. Additionally, the capture of rents from different industries and resources has been a key contributor to the geographic expansion of the conflict. As the conflict continues to rage between the two groups and their associates, it continues to impose considerable impacts on different actors within the agri-food system, posing significant challenges to the planting season and crop production, introducing blockades of trade routes, and a near cessation of agro-processing. We discuss these aspects of the ensuing conflict in view of the uncertainty about political and economic developments and propose policy recommendations for rebuilding Sudan’s agri-food system holistically under different scenarios.