The April 2023 outbreak of violent conflict in Sudan severely disrupted agrifood systems, markets, and livelihoods, with micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) playing a critical role in sustaining food supply, employment, and economic activity. This paper examines firm-level characteristics associated with higher operational continuity among MSMEs that remained active during the conflict. The analysis uses nationally representative data from the 2024 IFPRI–UNDP MSME survey (telephone interviews across 13 states), linked with locality-level conflict data from ACLED. The sample comprises 785 enterprises operating both before and after the conflict's onset. Post-conflict operational status is measured on an ordered scale from no operations to full capacity, using an ordered logit model.Even among surviving firms, disruption was substantial: 57 percent relocated at least once, 62 percent experienced temporary closure, and only 19 percent operated at full capacity at survey time. Average monthly sales declined significantly, especially for non-agricultural agrifood enterprises, and permanent employment fell across all firm types. Sector affiliation and commodity type were not significant predictors of operational levels; instead, outcomes were strongly linked to value chain position, firm size, financial inclusion, formality, owner characteristics, and pre-conflict location. Input dealers showed higher odds of operating at higher capacity, while logistics, transport, and packaging firms faced lower odds.The findings suggest enterprise resilience during conflict is driven mainly by structural and institutional factors. Policy should prioritize restoring midstream value chain functions, expanding conflict-adapted financial services, and supporting logistics networks to sustain food systems and stabilization in fragile contexts.
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