Demands for water, energy, and food are rapidly increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, driving the development of large-scale hydropower and irrigation projects. As climate change poses major risks and uncertainties for large-scale infrastructure investments, it is essential to stress-test infrastructure development plans to address these challenges and strengthen resilience. The Nile is one of the world’s longest rivers, draining approximately 10% of Africa’s land surface; Sudan accounts for around 40% of the basin area, where several new large hydropower and irrigation infrastructure projects are planned. We develop an integrated analytical framework for the Nile River system, utilizing 16 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 6, along with hydrological, river system, and Computable General Equilibrium models to evaluate the biophysical and economic impacts of hydropower and irrigation development in Sudan under climate change. The results indicate a projected increase in the naturalized streamflow of the Nile by 2050 due to climate change. A phased hydropower and irrigation development strategy in Sudan – targeting a total of 1,500 MW of hydropower capacity and approximately one million hectares of irrigated wheat – is projected to increase annual hydropower generation by up to 8.1 TWh and expand total wheat area by 283% by 2050. These developments increase the undiscounted national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 2030–2050 by US$ 0.1 to 0.4 billion per year, with larger increases occurring under high economic growth pathways. This research highlights the interconnected nature of climate change, water resource development, and economic performance, underscoring the importance of integrated assessment in informing investment decisions.
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